NESDC cuts GDP growth forecast to 2.5 to 3.5 per cent
The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) on Tuesday lowered its forecast for Thailand’s economic expansion in 2022 to 2.5 to 3.5 per cent from the previous estimate of 3.5 to 4.5 per cent it had made in November 2021.
NESDC secretary-general Danucha Pichayanan said that in the first quarter of 2022, Thailand saw a 2.2 per cent expansion of gross domestic product (GDP), with almost all sectors reporting increased turnover.
The key economic indicators in the first three months of the year are:
- Private consumption expanded 3.9 per cent
- Overall investment expanded 0.8 per cent, with private investment increasing 2.9 per cent, but government investment contracted 4.7 per cent
- Government consumption expanded 4.6 per cent
- Exports expanded 10.2 per cent, with export volume increasing 30.7 per cent year on year
- Agricultural sector expanded 4.1 per cent
- Industrial sector expanded 1.9 per cent
- Construction sector contracted 5.5 per cent
Danucha said that factors that prompted the NESDC to lower GDP estimates for 2022 were the slowdown in expansion of global trade and the rising price of crude oil.
“The conflict between Russia and Ukraine will continue to affect global and Thailand’s economic expansion, especially from the inevitable supply chain impact on energy, fertilisers and wheat that are key factors for the manufacturing sector,” he added.
In November last year, the NESDC had forecast GDP growth of up to 4.5 per cent, riding on increasing domestic demand and manufacturing capacity following the improving Covid-19 situation and increasing vaccination rate, gradual recovery of international tourism following the government’s relaxation of Covid measures, expansion of exports, and disbursement of government budget to various projects.