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ADB sees little economic threat to region from Thai coup



TOKYO - The coup in Thailand poses little threat to the Southeast Asian economies although Thai growth is set to slow after large public works projects were shelved, the Asian Development Bank's chief economist, Ifzal Ali, said Wednesday.

"The Thai coup has been viewed by financial markets as an idiosyncratic and Thai-specific event," said Ali, noting that the Thai baht and stock market had quickly bounced back after initial losses sparked by the putsch.

"This is not likely to have spillovers into the region. This is not 1997," he said, referring to the regional financial crisis almost a decade ago.

"This is a local political issue which hopefully will be sorted out within Thailand in the near future," Ali told reporters on a trip to Japan.

Ali said there were mixed messages coming from Thailand, voicing concern about remarks from interim prime minister General Surayud Chulanont saying he wants to focus more on gross domestic happiness than gross domestic product.

At the same time the 63-year-old former army chief had appointed the central bank governor as one of his key advisers, which has had a calming effect on financial markets, Ali added.

Even before the Thai coup, however, the Manila-based ADB had sharply revised down its forecasts for economic growth there to 4.2 per cent from 4.7 per cent for this year and to 4.0 per cent from 5.5 per cent for next year, he noted.

Thailand's economy has been suffering because of a long-running political stalemate under the previous administration of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in the September 19 bloodless coup.

Political uncertainty and postponement of large infrastructure projects in Thailand are expected to put the brakes on economic growth there but the economy "will bounce back", said Ali.

Other Southeast Asian nations such as Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia were starting to reap the rewards of tough economic measures.

"We foresee robust, stable growth rates in all these three neighbouring regions. Vietnam is a star performer. It will continue to grow at about 8.0 per cent (a year)", said Ali.

Agence France-Presse






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