Is Thaksin planning a Juan Peron-style comeback?

Thaksin has made it crystal clear he remains a key player in politics regardless of his conviction and life in exile.

He spells out his return will be through the ballot box and not a royal pardon.

Friends and foes of Thaksin ought to think about the long-term consequences to the country instead of trying to settle old scores. Otherwise the polarisation will persist and deepen.

Thaksin's ambition is evident and he is very direct about achieving his political aspirations.

If the legendary populist Juan Peron of Argentina could manage to return to power after 18 years in exile, then there is no reason to doubt Thaksin's resolve to bide his time.

Peron was 60 and in his second presidential term when he was ousted from power by the coup in 1955. He staged a triumphant return in 1973.

Thaksin saw an abrupt ending of his second term by the power seizure in 2006. He was 57.

Though circumstances differ greatly, Thaksin and Peron share a common trait - both are hugely popular and at the same time, a catalyst for polarisation.

In light of Peron's successful comeback, Thaksin has every reason to remain optimistic for fate to smile on him.

In Argentina and Thailand, the crusade to promote democracy and oppose military intervention has been used as a springboard to grab power.

Although Thaksin and Peron both thrive on popular votes, it is ironic their brand of populism has brought about unprecedented polarisation which leads, in turn, to military intervention.

Even after Peron's death from natural causes in 1974, his populism brought about another power seizure in 1976. To this day, the populist legacy of Peron is still a factor in Argemtina's political divide.

Will Thailand repeat a similar polarisation as the one lasting for almost half a century in Argentina?

More importantly, the crucial question is whether Thaksin's return, if it happens, will trigger a new round of power seizures.

All concerned parties are obligated to think hard when charting a course for Thai politics. Knee-jerk reaction and opportunistic ploys to ride on Thaksin's coattails will likely harm democracy rather than advance it.

The pro-Thaksin camp appears to have no qualms about placing the political system second to the individual interests of Thaksin. Thaksin too has the audacity to put his country at risk in order to resolve his issues.

The political divide will remain so long as parties concerned are willing to allow the game to revolve around one player - Thaksin.

The yellow shirts see Thaksin as the biggest threat to the country's political system. The red shirts are determined to reinstate Thaksin to power.

Instead of trying to find a common ground to foster compromise, the rival camps are surging full steam to defeat one another by working either through street protests, or election victory, or a combination of the two.

Thaksin has given his blessing for the red shirts to try and oust the Abhisit Vejjajiva government by lengthy street protests scheduled to start next month.

He has recruited former prime minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh as Pheu Thai chief adviser in order to prepare for a snap election.

He has the backing of former deputy Army chief General Jiradej Kocharat, a newly-appointed trouble shooter to mend fences between the military and the main opposition party.

Jiradej is expected to secure the defence portfolio as a reward if he succeeds in swaying Army chief General Anupong Paochinda and the top brass not to work against Thaksin.

In 2007, the red shirts won the general election. In less than a year, the coalition switch happened in favour of the Democrats.

Thaksin is again beating the war drum to fight his opponents through balloting. The yellow shirts are making full preparations to contest the polls.

How many rounds of fighting to go before the rival camps realise there has never been a vote outcome to end the polarisation?