Rumour mongers triggered a reign of terror for Bangkok residents in the last 48 hours by spreading lies about an imminent coup.

This happened in the wake of the eight New Year bomb atttacks and shattered the public confidence in safety.

The power struggle is spiralling out of control if Thais listen to rumours rather than think rationally in order to wade out of the troubled time.

I have a number of observations on coup rumour to share with you, dear reader.

Rumour mongers - who are they?

As Bangkok residents frantically checked the speculation for power seizure, they unwittingly became rumour mongers.

Many reporters on the military beat were gullible to their news sources. They too helped to spread rumours.

Determined not to witness another surprise like the September 19 coup, they omitted to verify the information before filing their reports. I see it as a journalistic sin to quote an unnamed military officer as saying that tanks were descending on Bangkok from Lop Buri without adding any qualifications.

A simple check would have revealed that there is no tanks in the central province. The home of the Cavalry Corp is in Saraburi.

Judging from the sequence of events, the coup rumour picked up steam right after speculation that former prime minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh was detained for questioning on Wednesday's night.

As speculation linking Chavalit to the explosions spreaded like wildfire on Tuesday, Chavalit held a press conference on the following day to blame the Council for National Security for trying make him a scapegoat.

He also hinted that the bomb blasts were an insider's job within the CNS ranks, alluding to a possible repeat of power seizure.

Hours following Chavalit's press conference, news sources in the Army and retired officers started to circulate off-the-record views about the pros and cons for a second coup.

Many news sources are outright close to Chavalit's clique. The others were asked to comment on regurgitated views, helping to set the rumour in motion.

Coup rumour gained further momentum on Thursday's night because it coincided with the rotation of soldiers deployed in 300 public places in the capital. These troops were part of the beef-up security after the bomb attacks.

After all was said and done, will there be a second coup?

Thailand appears to have factored in the seizure of power as an intrinsic part of its democratic rule. The military intervention is an option that can never be ruled out but it is unlikely to happen in foreseeable future.

Speculations on a second coup and a repeated coup indicate two different political scenarios.

For a second coup, it means a rival military clique would usurp power from the CNS in order to bring back the Thaksin Shinawatra regime. At the moment, this is far fetched.

It is true that Thaksin still has a lot of military allies and Chavalit can help him peddling influence among the soldiers. It is also true that the Royal Palace will never condone a coup done to serve the vested interest.

The fate of Thaksin has already spawned social division. It is unthinkable that his military allies would risk a civil war in order bring him back.

In regard to the repeated coup, news sources have tried to convince the local press that the split in the CNS would lead to another power seizure.

I believe the real conflict is not to be found in the CNS but between CNS assistant secretary General Saprang Kalayamitr and First Army Region commander Lt General Prayuth Chan-ocha.

The military rivalry is still in the early stage of a friendly competition for power. The coup is still unwarranted at this juncture.

The core issue behind the rivalry is the race to carry the Army's torch after the retirement of Army chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin in September.

As things stand, Saprang is trying to portray himself as a no-nonsense leader persuing the hard-line approach to tackle the country's problems. This has won him kudos from the media but cast him away from his Army colleagues.

The eight bomb blasts brought the military rivalry to the fore.

Less than two hours after the New Year explosions, Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont assigned the Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC) to take charge of Bangkok security and resolve the political violence.

Prayuth's troops swiftly descended on the capital and managed to shore up public morale. Power and prestige immediately shifted to Prayuth's clique. Meanwhile Saprang looked on like a lameduck.

Two mentors of Prayuth, CNS assistant secretary General Anupong Paochinda and Army Chief-of-Staff General Montri Sangkhasap, basked in the limelight as their clique gained the public trust. Anupong and Montri happen to be Saprang's rival contenders to lead the Army.

In trying to keep himself on the centre stage, Saprang launched a task force, Miksakawan Centre, to solicit the public assistance to solve the bombings case and made noisy remarks about closing in on culprits.

The bomb blasts did not just rock Bangkok but revealed Saprang's vulnerable position within the Army - he has no combat troops to back up his bark.

In order to keep the military rivalry under control, CNS chairman Sonthi may have to expand the CNS composition to include Montri and Prayuth. Otherwise Sonthi might have a hard time running two parallel power centres, the ISOC and the CNS.