On May 31 2007

Hi, everyone. Welcome to my blog and a live discussion and analysis of today's historic events _ the Constitution Tribunal's rulings on the election fraud cases. I will keep updating this entry, particularly after the verdicts are delivered. Will be with you all day, so to speak.

I'd greatly appreciate your participation. Leave your reactions, opinions or even rants on the comment section below. If you want to ask any question, please do so. Our editorial team is very happy to help find the answer.

11 am: Ok, here's the latest situation. Although all the judges have practically been quarantined and stripped off all communications gears over the past 24 hours, rumours have managed to swirl around the court headquarters that the verdict will dissolve Thai Rak Thai and spare the Demcorats.

Do I believe it? The reporters insist that the rumours came from one of them who had a very good source. But well, the assets concealment case taught us that things can change in the last minute.

11:45 am: TV has reported Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont is "ready" to declare a state of emergency if violence erupted and went out of control. Again, he may be just giving a logical reply to reporters' questions. Some interpreted as an ominous hint for Thai Rak Thai future. Thanks for all your comments. 

12:15 pm: Dave from Australia, as to your question, things have appeared quite calm. No big "Red-shirt" mobs so far and Bangkok taxi drivers as well as taxi-motorcyclists, who form hardline political base of Thai Rak Thai, have been going about their own businesses. No red flags or red shirts _ the purported symbol of Thai Rak Thai resistance. People gathering at the major parties' headquarters and at the Constitution Court have been orderly.

We have just finished somtam and kaiyang in the newsroom, and part of the discussion was about how the finale of immensely popular TV soap opera, Raem Pissawas (Night of passion), stole public attention Tuesday night.

So far, so calm. Let's hope things remain this way.  

12:45 pm: Somehow, the rumours I mentioned have seemed to gain momentum. Now reporters are discussing the logic behind the possible clampdown on Thai Rak Thai and acquittal of the Democrats. Obviously, this verdict scenario is based on the belief that finding both parties guilty would create a legal paradox that might come back to haunt the judges. Also, "political cleansing" is no good for Thailand and it will make the system remain weak and vulnerable. This scenario has the Democrats as transitional guardian of parliamentary system.

Oh, Khun Siayai, I think prospective students have to wait till Manchester City is relegated from the Premiere League first!!

Abac student, the Sanam Luang gathering is expected to materialise later in the day. It's being organised by people opposed to the coup, and the organisers will have to be very careful not to be seen as acting on Thai Rak Thai behalf. They have been steadfast on handing out the amulets, though. As for the Raem Pissawad drama, I just heard about it the first time today. Talk about ignorance.

1:15 pm: Crowds at key spots have been swelling gradually, but the order remains. Khun KK, the Thai Rak Thai camp has cited the interim charter, which they said opens the way for the verdict to be challenged. The interim charter, unlike the 1997 Constitution, doesn't specifically state that Constitution Tribunal rulings are final, so Thai Rak Thai think they may be able to challenge today's ruling.

1:30 pm: Any minute now, folks.

By the way, Saphan Kwai Boy, hello from Bang Na. Could you tell us more about Thais in the US in regards to this political crisis?

1:37 pm: The verdict is being read. You can hear pins drop in the newsroom. It seems the world stops outside our office as well. Boy, this will surely break TV rating records.

2 pm: Judge Jaran Hattakarn continues to read the verdict. The first thing he said was ask all in the courtroom to sit because "it's going to take hours". I admire him. When was the last time you have to read anything out loud continuously for two or three hours?

As to Roo's question, the verdict is based on the interim charter and organic laws on the MPs, senators elections and political parties. The essence of the 1997 charter is still enshrined in the organic laws. So, the ruling is based on both charters, though one has been abolished, and the organic laws.

Thai in New York, good morning! We will have rough translation of the verdict soon. Stay tuned with our website.

Steve, sorry buddy. I have refrained from TV since Liverpool lost the Champions League final. (Afraid of running into TV replay or highlights). Know very little about the plot except that one of the characters possessed some viagra-typed herb for women or something.

2:25 pm: The judge's still reading. Backgrounds of the Democrat case featuring opinions of the investigators.

Steven, I have cross-checked with many reporters. No appeal is possible. The verdict will be final. In the 1997 Constitution, it was stated that the Constitution Court's verdicts are ultimate.

2:36 pm: "Thaksin's legacy is for all to see. But Sir, what can the poor do? They need to eat too? They need the likes of Thaksin and Chavalit and even the mafia bosses around.Let's not kid ourself. When everything is back to normal, these people, their families or cronies will surface again. " Genesha here speaks the minds of many. How can we get off this vicious circle? Let's see how we get out of today first.

2:45 pm: Democrats' grounds for defence are being read. There have been some sheers among Democrat faithful as they mistook the defence arguements as the ruling.

Haritho, you can walk into any newsroom and get a job. Good analysis. I'm not sure about power of sympathy as compared to power of money, though. Let's see.

By the way, the Democrats' defence sounds like a parliamentary censure attack on Thaksin. Did they really need to say all that?

Bangkokian, according to our reporters, the threat of violence seemed to have been blown out of proportion like you suggested. Anyway, let's hope the present peace and calmness remain after the verdict.

3:20 pm: The judge is yet to finish the Democrat defence and get to the verdict. It will be a very long day for us, guys. You should start ordering dinner, or in case of those in the other part of the world, lunch now.

3:30 pm: Verdict is being read now...The Tribunal basically ruled that the Election Commission was empowered to charge the Democrat Party and seek its dissolution. ...

The Tribunal also ruled that the Constitution Court nullifying the October election last year did not absolve illegal election activities of political parties. ...

4:20: The Tribunal has spent a long time addressing pre-election activities of the Democrats such as their use of the term "Thaksin system" and their fierce attacks on his character. Again, this part of the verdict is a rerun of the ills of the Thaksin era, such as interference with the checks and balances, media intimidation and nepotism. ...

Sorry for the slow update, folks. It has been largely background still. ...

The Tribunal ruled that all the activities were nornal political practices that benefited the Thai public interests. The Tribunal said the Democrats did not discourage people from going to the poll, but instead encouraged the public to vote "abstension" to protest against Thaksin.

4:35 pm: Now the crunch time _ whether the Democrats are guilty of hiring small-time candidates to "frame" Thai Rak Thai. ...

As the court reads the verdict, body languages from Democrat executives are positive. Abhisit Vejjajiva has nodded frequently , apparently agreeing with what the judge read, whereas Suthep Thaugsuban, the potential fallguy, looks quite relaxed. Still a lot of mentioning of backgrounds, charges and defence arguement, though.

5 pm: Please be patient, folks. Now the Tribunal is getting to the point if Suthep is guilty of hiring small-time candidates to frame Thai Rak Thai. The verdict on Suthep will be the biggest tell-tale sign of Thailand's political future. The judge has been reading a lot of details of activities of Suthep and another Democrat executive, Sathit Wongnong-toei and their interaction with the small parties.

5:10 pm: Suthep and Sathit have been cleared of hiring the small party candidates to frame Thai Rak Thai. The Democrat Party now looks very likely to be off the hook now.

5:20 pm: Urgent. . The Democrats have been cleared of the last major charge _ that they tried to obstruct the October election.

This practically means the party is ruled innocent.

This particular charge was raised against Tavorn Sennium. The Tribunal ruled that there was not enough evidence, and that he was accused by primarily political rivals from Thai Rak Thai, which made the accusations unreliable.

By the way, you're my man, Ian. Thanks for the sympathy!

Ed, long story behind the IP thing, but it was a policy adopted in good faith. Oh, Raem Pissawad ended last night.

5:40 pm: Urgent! The Tribunal has dissolved one of the small parties accused of being hired by Thai Rak Thai. The dissolution of the Progressive Democratic Party is very ominous for Thai Rak Thai in deed.

And it's official now. The Democrats have been cleared of all charges.

Earlier, the Tribunal ruled that the post-coup announcement on party dissolution can have retroactive effects. This is very important because it means that if the Thai Rak Thai is found guilty, all 118 party executive members including those who resigned from the party earlier like Somkid Jatusripitak and Somsak Thepsuthin will be banned from politics for five years.

The acquittal of Suthep, according to the Tribunal, was due to the fact that Suthep never accused Thai Rak Thai of hiring small parties. Instead, the Tribunal said, Suthep had only provided legal advice to the candidates of the small parties who were not in fact qualified for the poll.

As for Sathit, the Tribunal ruled that there was no evidence linking him and a former aide who had been in contact with the small parties.

The court takes a 15-minute break.

6:15 pm: I have had a brief meeting with fellow editors of Nation Multimedia Group and all agreed that Thai Rak Thai is almost doomed now. The ruling against the Progressive Democratic Party is very ominous for them.

At this point, members of the Thai Rak Thai are feeling a shriver down their spines. Every score won by the Democrat in the Constitution Tribunal's ruling seems to be every score lost by the Thai Rak Thai.

If this is the case, as we shall know over the next couple of hours, then Abhisit Vejjajiva looks set to become Thailand's next prime minister.  

His running in the next election will face no contest. Were the Thai Rak Thai to be dissolved, there would be only the Democrat, the Chat Thai and the Mahachon left as the major political parties. The Thai political landscape has faced a tsunami-like change.

 6:30 pm: The Thai Rak Thai verdict is about to begin soon, but Abhisit is already asserting himself as Thailand's potential new leader. In his Thank You speech, he pratically attributed his party's survival to its "adherence" to parliamentary values. He also called on the military junta to loosen its grip on political activities after today so Thailand's democratic life can get back to normal?

Can he be the one who heals the deep wound? That's a very BIG question. 

6:40 pm: The Tribunal has begun reading the Thai Rak Thai verdict now.

Abac student, I guess the immediate concern is how Thai Rak Thai supporters will react if their party is dissolved. If we can pass this period peacefully, I think the Democrat Party stands a very good chance.

The "ban" on political parties will prevent those convicted from doing clandestine work to support other candidates or create their own nominees.

But parties like Chat Thai that used to dominate North or Northeast before Thaksin will come to fill the void.

And yes, Ron, the situation will be ironically similar to Thai Rak Thai's election triumph that was nullified by the court. One thing, though, is that Thai Rak Thai was a composition of a few parties, an unhealthy birth which fortunately was helped by Thaksin's charisma and later popularity.

7:25 pm: Judge Thanis Ketsawapitak still reads the verdict. Man, you should have listened to his soft monotone. Very unjudge-like and it takes a lot of excitement away. Still nowhere near the climax.

7:30 pm: Democrat fans in the newsroom are making a lot of noises while long-faced TRT supporters are saying "Wait and See". There remains the possibility that the Tribunal will rule against only certain executives and spare the party. How such a ruling would raise questions, in regards to the earlier dissolution of the Progressive Democratic Party will remain to be seen.

From our newsroom analysis, one good thing about the Democrats continuing to be the main player in politics is they have shown many times that they are capable of keeping the military at bay in normal-time politics. In other words, it will be harder for the CNS to exert influence over the next government or "plant" nominees in it.

7:55 pm: The judge's still reading in the monotone, if you guys are wondering. Yawn Yawn.

8:00 pm: Hey, what's the deal with this Farang-Thai battle? Don't believe everything politicians say. We love you. Stop the fight, kids.

8:20 pm: To wrap it up for you, the Tribunal has so far ruled that...

1. It has the authority to deliver the verdict in this case.

2. Regarding Thai Rak Thai arguement that the Democrats, who boycotted the election, were not the damaged party and thus had no right to lodge complaints against it, the Tribunal ruled that allegations like this do not require "affected parties" to initiate charges. The political party registrar, if aware of wrongdoings, can initiate investigation right away, the Tribunal said.

3. The TRT argued that the Election Commission's subcommittee investigating the election fraud claim was "unfair" to the party. The Tribunal ruled that this claim did not weaken the case, so the investigative process continued when the case reached the prosecutors (the Auditor General's Office).

8:30 pm: A while ago, a brilliant vendor visited the TRT gathering site with, you guess what, A Basket of Jatukham amulets for sale!!! Won't you believe it. As the crowd was distracted and began to gather around the vendor, party officials chased him away.

Soda, thanks for the cautioning. Just wanted to alert myself and relax you guys a bit. We appreciate the magnitude and importance of today's developments.

9 pm: More update. The Tribunal has, again, stated that despite the coup, the election and political parties laws are still applicable with the election fraud case.

Also, the Tribunal defended constitutionality of a possible dissolution verdict.

9:15 pm: "Do the judges get paid extra for each hour they spend reading the verdict on tv??" asked a friend of mine talking from London. Oops, sorry, Soda, couldn't help it.

The Tribunal is entering a crucial stage _ whether the "hiring" of small parties did take place and whether there were attempts to cover up the alleged crime.

By the way, nothing's happening at Sanam Luang, where anti-coup protesters gather and tried to attract participation by vowing to give away Jatukham amulets. Some people just went to pick the amulets and left.

9:35 pm: Still details of the alleged hiring incidents and the defence arguement.

Jeff, we thought about that, too. Finishing late will help prevent trouble at least for the day, and make it easier to prepare to cope with potential trouble tomorrow. 

9:50: Urgent! The Tribunal found former TRT deputy secretary general Pongsak Raktapongpisal and former TRT executive and defence minister Thamarak Isarangura guilty of hiring small parties and changing digital data of the Election Commission as part of the scam.

Essentially, they are found guilty of electoral fraud. They face jail if criminal proceedings are initiated against them.

Now it remains to be seen whether the Tribunal considers this an individual crime or a party crime. But it doesn't look good for the former ruling party.

Our senior reporter Avudh Panananda, who has been working extensively on the case, has just described TRT as "in a coma now". The ruling against Thamarak and Pongsak, he said, sounded very damning. Evidence, specially regarding alleged tampering with digital EC information to enable otherwise-unqualified candidates to run in the October election, was very strong.

10:35 pm: Recapping again. The Tribunal has ruled that the two other small parties (apart from Progressive Democratic) have received money from Thamarak or his men. The Tribunal rejectedc TRT claims that Democrat Suthep had manipulated the small parties' candidates into running as TRT nominees.

The Tribunal rejected an about-turn by one of the candidates who claimed she was bribed by Suthep to frame TRT.

10:55 pm: Urgent! The Tribunal ruled the TRT must have been aware of Pongsak's and Thamarak's illegal actions.

The Tribunal said both men "would have got no benefit" from their illegal actions, which on the other hand benefited the party. Adding the facts that both men were senior party members and key Cabinet ministers, and that Thamarak was in charge of the party's election preparation, there were strong grounds to believe that the party was aware of the alleged fraud.

The Tribunal said TRT was desperate to beat the "20 per cent" rule, which required unchallenged candidates to win at least 20 per cent of votes in uncontested constituencies.

At certain points, the Tribunal sounded almost sympathetic with the TRT regarding the deadlock created by the major parties' boycott. But it's delivering damning ruling on how such illegal activities simply meant trying to acquire parliamentary power, or power to govern the country, through a fraudulent scheme. This, the Tribunal said, would weaken the country's political system and eat into public faith in democracy.

"This is hostile action toward Thailand's democratic parliamentary system," the Tribunal said.

11:15 pm: The Tribunal said Thaksin dissolved Parliament last year out of personal trouble created by the sale of Shin Corp and other corruption charges. The dissolution was not warranted by conflicts between political entities, it said.

This is getting very tense and gloomy for TRT indeed.

The Tribunal said TRT did not show respect for the laws, and by the abrupt parliamentary dissolution and the failure to give the voting public a true chance to exercise their rights for the utmost benefit of the country, the TRT is proven to be functioning for their own interests.

11:24 pm: Urgent.. The Tribunal has ordered TRT's dissolution!!

It rejected plea for mercy which was based on the fact that millions of Thais supported the TRT. The Tribunal basically said that the party's board, which had no real ideology to serve public interests, had to be responsible for its own sins which include contempt for the rule of law and democratic values.

11:40 pm: This is staggering. Top TRT men including Thaksin will be banned from politics for five years. Somehow, the corruption cases against the ousted leader have paled in significance now, because, guilty of corruption or not, Thaksin now won't be able to return politically.

11:45 pm: How are the reactions? Depending on who you are. Academics on TV are hailing the "well-crafted" ruling. Something similar to what "uponAtime" said in his post: "I used to think Thai law and justice was a total joke.  But now I have to think again. ...These brave judges have done exactly what needed to be done in an honest, open, fair and extremely smart way."

But if you are TRT supporters, it surely will be the other side of the coin. A popular party that has done so much for the poor has been wiped out under a military junta. It remains to be seen what happens next.

Midnight: Sorry for little interaction over the past few hours. I didn't expect the verdict to be this long and had to concentrate a lot on what the judges were reading. But thanks a lot to everyone who visits my blog and for all the comments.

As of now, we will have to wait and see how the apparently eloquent verdict will affect the course of tumultuous Thai politics. Observers have noted the strong Tribunal reprimand of TRT for enacting laws that benefited Thaksin's businesses. How this will affect the on-going corruption probes is interesting.

I will still keep updating and let you know when the tank becomes totally empty.

0:20 am Thursday: Chaturon Chaisaeng has given a very strong speech denouncing the ruling. "Everything that comes from the barrel of the gun is always right," he said. It sounded like a war cry actually. ITTV broadcast his emotional address of  party supporters briefly and cut to the news host.

Thai Rak Thai leaders have been dejected, but defiant. They now are pinning hope on the more than 200 former MPs who could carry the party's virtual flag in the next election.

If they can still be together by the next election, that is.

0:25 am: Thanks for your compliments, guys. Nice to be with you. I will wait for a bit more developments and get some more analysis from the remaining editorial staffs. If you're not sleepy or hungry, stick around.

0:35 am: It was an 11-hour verdict, would you believe it?

By the way, Chaturon's rallying cry plus the fact that the TRT has 15-16 million supporters have convinced our Political Desk that this is not quite over yet.  The relatively small gathering at the TRT headquarters, moreover, is anything but a solid proof that the CNS has been in full control.

1 am: Here's  Thaksin's reaction to the verdict. He has talked to the British media.

"We have to respect the rules of the game. That is, the rule of the law. If the rules of the law are observed, we have to respect it."

Will he come back to Thailand?

"Yes, definitely. It's my home town. It's my home country. I love my country, I love my people. I will go back home, definitely. But I will go back home at a certain time when it won't create any more rift among the Thai people. I want national reconciliation to occur as soon as possible. That's what I urge the government and the junta."

Regarding fears of violence....

"Well, I talked to my supporters and the party themselves. The executives of the party have urged all the supporters to stay calm at home."

1:37 am: Sorry for the long disappearance. Internet was becoming slow and unstable so I took the liberty to drive home. Should have taken just 20 minutes but got caught in the rain.

Would there be violence? I have discussed this with many people. Our preliminary analysis is "What will TRT gain from violence?" Clashes with troops and another coup, maybe? What would another coup serve TRT then?

This is not to mention the fact that all political upheavals in Thailand were "Bangkok-based". Not just that they happened in the capital, but they also involved largely non-grassroot protesters. This is not playing down the power of the rural people, but their priorities are clear _ the mouths they have to feed come first.

The other factor has to do with the fact that the previous upheavals ended with royal intervention. In 1974 HM the King told the Thanom regime to leave the country. In 1992, he reprimanded Gen Suchinda Kraprayoon and Chamlong Srimuang before TV audience and hours later Suchinda quit as prime minister.

How would His Majesty react to a TRT uprising and possible violence stemming from it? I guess TRT leaders have to ponder this question seriously.

Is TRT capable of instigating an uprising? Yes. Will they do it? This remains a big question mark.

2:05 am: I'm going to take some sleep now. It's been a great pleasure being with you guys. Come and meet me again around noon Bangkok time. Hopefully we will have more time to discuss things as developments become less frantic. Goodnight, goodbye and good luck everyone.

2 pm Thursday: I have started a new blog entry named The Day After. See you there.