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Last year was not a politically good year as three prime ministers came and went. It remains to be seen whether this year will bring about changes for the better or for the worse.

With the same old players, and political polarisation remaining a constant, the leadership of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is the only variable, like a breath of fresh air, in the midst of fractious politics.

Since 2005,the camp of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has had plenty of chances but repeatedly failed to put politics back on course. Now it is time for opposition-turned-coalition leader Abhisit to have a shot at restoring normalcy.

Although doomsayers see the odds stacked against the Democrat-led coalition, Abhisit does have one advantage - he carries no excess baggage unlike his two predecessors - Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat.

Samak and Somchai were forced to exit due to the outcome of the judicial review. Abhisit has no legal wrangling on his job qualifications, hence he is unlikely to face a similar downfall.

In recent years, litigation was a decisive factor in determining the fate of a government. A game change will definitely happen this year. The Abhisit government will sink or swim depending on its performance and not on legal or political tactics.

The first 100 days will be the most crucial period for the survival of the Democrat-led coalition. Abhisit has until March to prove his leadership.

Because of political turmoil, mechanisms for government spending were at a standstill last year. In light of this year's global economic turmoil, all sides are pinning high hopes on the government's stimulus package to be the main engine for growth - or at the very least the cushion for a slowdown.

The domestic economy is in dire need of a massive injection of public spending in this year's first quarter if Thailand is to avoid slipping into recession.

Should Abhisit fail to rise to the challenge of revitalising the economy, political woes will likely fester to bring about his early exit.

The ongoing opposition by the red-shirt crowds will pale in comparison to the angry disaffection for being let down by Abhisit's leadership.

For his first three months in office, Abhisit's main threat is not political but economic woes. The opposition Pheu Thai Party has neither the means nor the will to force his departure at this juncture. Its fiery rhetoric is just a dress rehearsal for things to come. Its opposition fire will be stoked into a political inferno only if the government utterly fails to meet expectations.

It is ironic that the success of the economic stimulus package, if it happens, will work to the mutual benefit of both Democrats and the opposition lawmakers. The coalition and the opposition could claim credit since both sides have similar measures to spur the economy.

If Pheu Thai is to force a House dissolution now, then it would be tantamount to a gross error of judgement since the party can boast no tangible achievements since the downfall of Thaksin in 2006.

Although many worry about the fragile political situation due to the slim majority in the House, this might be an undue concern. The Democrats would continue to have viable votes to ensure survival even after an opposition camp win in the January 11 by-elections to fill 29 House seats.

The Democrats might be obligated to work doubly hard to keep the coalition alliance intact, but they face no immediate threat from switching loyalties.

If Abhisit can shore up confidence and minimise the adverse impacts of the economic slowdown, then the timing to return the mandate to the people will be a matter for his judgement.

He might choose one of two options - either to dissolve the House after the stimulus package starts to show results, or to initiate the charter rewrite before calling the snap election.

Regardless of his decision on vote timing, he is obligated to ensure reconciliation to bring about a fresh start.

It is evident that animosity is deep-rooted and that polarisation persists because of the fate of one man - Thaksin.

In order to close the ugly chapter of fractious politics, it will be necessary for the government to map out an amicable and judicious solution rather than allow the ex-premier to remain a political wild card.

It is better to tackle the issue of Thaksin before it festers any further. Imagine the political mayhem if Thaksin decides to return home and serve his jail term, later this year or the next, in order to exploit his imprisonment to sway the crowds.