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Sounding the Alarm

Published on December 25, 2005 - Authorities and villagers work together to fine tune the new tsunami warning system

N ine days ago another milestone in the Thailand’s tsunami recovery effort was achieved when thousands of people participated in the nation’s first official test of its tsunami warning system and evacuation plans.

While many applauded the drill’s success, key officials pointed to remaining hurdles that must be overcome for the system to be fully effective, most critically, how do we know when to push the button?    

“We are making progress in establishing the warning towers. Thirty-three out of our target of 62 towers are built in the formerly affected areas. But frankly, we still have problems with where to obtain reliable information to inform our warnings,” says deputy director of the National Disaster Warning Centre (NDWC) ACM Anupan Snidvongse na Ayudhya.    

His concerns are shared by his superior, Smith Dharmasaroja, vice minister of Prime Minister’s Office overseeing the NDWC, who explains how the centre must presently rely on limited information from the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre in Hawaii and the Japanese Meteorological Agency.  
“If Thailand had its own tsunami monitoring equipment, warnings could be issued up to 90 minutes in advance of a wave reaching shore,” Smith claims.

Absent this technology, Smith describes how his centre must analyse earthquake information and assess if the seismic movements meet theoretical criteria indicative of potentially generating tsunami waves. Such an earthquake must be at least of magnitude 7.0 on the Richter scale, have its epicentre less than 100 kilometres below the ocean floor and move in a vertical direction.
 
However, analysing the data takes valuable time, thus the use of this criteria is difficult in practice. To error on the side of safety, the centre now issues warnings anytime an earthquake of magnitude 7.0 occurs. This has led to two alerts in the past year triggered by earthquakes in the Indian Ocean.

Shortly after issuing the warnings, the centre confirmed these two earthquakes also met the depth and vertical movement criteria, but nonetheless, did not produce tsunami waves.
“I ran for my life each time these warnings were sounded,” recalls Kallaya Kuanoon from Phuket’s Kamala Beach.

Though questioning the centre’s reliability, Kallaya, who almost lost her life to the tsunami last year, is still willing to run once the siren is heard. “It [the tsunami] still haunts me, but if possible, I would like to see the authorities be certain before they sound the alarm.”

Anupan is optimistic that things will improve. The government recently granted approval to the NDWC to purchase three tsunami detection buoys. He is not sure when they might be purchased, but once installed, the monitoring devices should improve the centre’s ability to provide more accurate and timely warnings.

Also waiting to be installed are 29 of the 62 tsunami warning towers planned for the coastline along the six Andaman provinces. Located in the more densely populated areas, the towers’ alerts are audible within a 1.5-kilometer radius, and transmit their warnings in five languages: Thai, English, Chinese, Swedish, and Japanese. 

“The towers are not designed to reach everyone,” explains Smith. “But in combination with radio and TV announcements as well as SMS via mobile phone, we’re getting much closer to state-of-the-art.”    

According to Smith, future plans call for installation of another set of warning towers along coastal areas in the Gulf of Thailand.

Once the siren and warning messages are broadcast, the NDWC’s responsibility is complete. The Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation then takes over to ensure the timely evacuation of those in high-risk areas.    

With limited experience in developing evacuation procedures, the department turned to the Pathumathani-based Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC) for assistance.

Suwit Yodmanee, ADPC’s director, says his organisation helped Thailand’s disaster prevention team draw up “community-based” plans derived from a public hearing process carried out last month. So far, not everyone is convinced of the usefulness of these plans.

“There’s no need to show me where and how to run. I have lived here and know my surroundings very well,” adds Kallaya after attending one of the hearings near her Kamala Beach community.  

Villagers in Baan Tab Nua, Ranong’s Suk Samran sub-district, question the plans as well. When a false tsunami warning sounded 11 days ago, Ampol Klongyuan, 61, and his neighbours did not consider the evacuation plan developed by provincial authorities. “We just fled along the road in our pick-up trucks and motorcycles,” he said.

The proposed evacuation plans have even raised the eyebrows of foreign tourists.    
Although Alan Poulsen from Denmark knew the discussions at the Kamala Beach hearing were of the utmost seriousness, he says he struggled at times to contain his laughter.

“Planning is good but this is not so helpful,” remarks Poulsen, who has been visiting Phuket annually for many years. “People still have to run along the coast before they reach the path leading to higher ground, and then they are blocked by buildings. If another tsunami comes, I fear the fatalities might be the same.”

Kamala Beach hotel manager told the Nation that she now plans to use their fire alarm system when tsunami warnings are issued. When asked how, in the event of a tsunami, guests will know whether to run outside as in the case of a fire, or if they should head to the building’s upper floors, the manager conceded more planning was necessary.  

For Smith, concerns over the new system are not surprising. He has faced these questions since his first warning was issued. “I told my staff to prepare for public complaints if no waves followed our warning, but for them to remember it would be far more deadly if waves came without our warning.” he explains.“We’re working hard to improve the margin of safety. You have the right to choose whether to believe us, but I beg you to choose to believe, as it’s all about saving your life.”
Pennapa Hongthong
The Nation