Dispatches from Bangkok report that the majority of people are in favor of Tuesday's military takeover. The coup supporters must be thrilled to see an abrupt end to the wearying political battle, and the exit of a charismatic but greedy leader. But they should be reminded that while it takes just one night of swift action - with bloodshed or not - for the generals to come into power, it may take decades and even generations to push them out and restore civilian democracy.
Gen. Sondhi Boonyaratkalin said that the military would not hold onto power for more than a year, and that a general election will be held in October 2007. Yet, we know this kind of pledge is quite often forgotten. In Islamabad to the northwest, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, who made a more or less similar promise in October 1999, is still the president of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and its army chief.
We are concerned that the "success" of the Thai military could have a ripple effect across Asia, constantly troubled by leadership crises on top of economic and ethnic woes, and even natural disasters. Could it put into reverse the democratic changes we have seen in the region since the late 1980s? We see democratically elected leaders fighting uphill battles in the Philippines and Indonesia; the legacy of authoritarian politics persisting in Malaysia and Singapore, political darkness in Myanmar and, though reluctant to mention, once popular presidents struggling under plummeting support rates in Taiwan and in our own country.
For some time, Asians claimed that their politics graduated from a stage built through the active role of the military. Earlier this year when speculation circulated over the possibility of military intervention in the midst of mounting protests against Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's maladministration, Gen. Sondhi, as army chief of staff, declared: "Military coups are a thing of the past." The general has gone back on his own words.
If we recognize particularly strong political ambitions in the Thai military community, the current turmoil in the country is largely attributable to the ousted premier himself. His fall began when his family sold its 49 percent share in Thailand's biggest telecom company to Singapore's state investment group to bag an astronomical $1.9 billion profit, and paid no tax. This touched off an uproar of rebuke from oppositionists and urban intellectuals.
Thai officers have just accomplished the 19th military coup since 1932 in their remarkable tradition of political interventions. But the latest coup came after the Thais enjoyed a long "interval" of 14 years of civilian rule following the ouster of Gen. Suchinda Kraprayoon in 1992, a period when people's lifestyles have dramatically changed with the advent of the internet and mobile phones. The officers now in power will soon find controlling the public is not as easy as in the past.
The future of the military government in Bangkok will depend on how much trust the generals will be able to win through an effective administration to revive the economy, suppress drug trafficking, and control the Muslim insurgency in the south. But the best thing right now would be for the men in uniform to keep their promise and return power to civilians as soon as possible, although history offers few such precedents.
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