22 September 2006
A military regime is no long-term solution for Thailand
DEMOCRACY in the region has taken a blow with the military coup in Thailand. It is hard to say very much in favour of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra but the military's action presents all democrats with a dilemma. In the five years Mr Thaksin and his Thai Rak Thai party have ruled Thailand, they have shown themselves to be no friends of the institutions of freedom. A billionaire businessman, Mr Thaksin has abused his political mandate, using it as a base to enrich himself and his family. Many Thais were enraged earlier this year when Mr Thaksin structured the $2 billion sale of a telecommunications company to Singapore investors to avoid paying tax. He has used his position to crush media debate over his corrupt style and to promote his allies in the military. Despite promising to distance himself from politics after Thailand's April elections were aborted by the courts, he broke his word by reasserting himself at the forefront of the caretaker government. Meanwhile, two of his supporters who were involved in running that election have been jailed for rorting the process. Mr Thaksin has also failed spectacularly in settling the violent Islamist insurgency causing havoc in the country's south. Despite early shudders through the region's financial markets, many analysts are predicting the Thai economy will benefit from the end of Mr Thaksin's corrupt and controversial rule. None of this has escaped the notice of Thailand's King Bhumibol Adulyadej, whose silence has been seen as an endorsement of the military's action.
That said it is a tragedy for the 65 million Thais that the nation has not been able to find a constitutional solution to the political turmoil. Elections scheduled for November in theory offered Thailand's opposition parties an opportunity to oust Mr Thaksin democratically. Unfortunately, such an outcome looked unlikely. Supported by a strong base in the provinces greased by political largesse, Mr Thaksin and Thai Rak Thai looked set for another victory, making it understandable why army chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin acted. The question is whether his defence of good governance justifies the risk of throwing the country back to the coups and instability that afflicted Thailand in the 1960s and 70s. The general has promised a new prime minister within two weeks. But a puppet leader backed by the military does not sound like government for the people by the people.
The best result for all Thais, and the region, is for a return to democratic rule as quickly as possible. Regrettably, this looks unlikely. With the constitution annulled and fresh elections postponed until at least October next year, there is plenty of time for General Sonthi's strategy of reforming the country's parliamentary system to run off the rails. This may not worry all that many Thais. And if the rampant corruption at the heart of the Thaksin government ends, so much the better. But military regimes are inevitably unreliable and the present situation may well destabilise the economy which has enjoyed a strong recovery following the 1997 Asian economic crisis and undermine a thriving tourism industry that accounts for one in every 10 jobs.
Democratic Thailand has been a good friend to Australia in the region and a strong partner in the war on terror, participating in the 2003 arrest of Bali bombings planner Hambali. The coup is unlikely to resolve divisions tearing at Thai society between the urban elite and the rural poor and between majority Buddhists and minority Muslims. In removing a corrupt regime, the military may have done the Thai people a service. General Sonthi will do the country a greater one if he quickly returns the troops to their barracks.
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