NEWS & ANALYSIS ON MAJOR INCIDENTS

- No time for complacency in the South
- The South is a long way from Bangkok
- Unofficial talks may fan the flames of insurgency
- Is Chavalit fostering false hope in the deep South?
- Analysis :Ceasefire in south is just too good to be true
- Pornthip means well, but she misunderstands the south
- Army's abuses come home to roost in South
- Deep south insurgency puts strain on thai-malay relations
- In the South, the media, too, must think outside the box
- Lessons from the southern insurgency not learned
- Insurgents make it clear there is no neutral ground
- BANGKOKIAN: Odd silence on south
- Political rumblings in the deep South
- No progress in checking unrest
- Hope for the southern poor
- Between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea
- 'Pushing people towards the insurgents'
- Analysis :Premier has wasted opportunity in South
- Crisis in south rooted in ethnic Malay identity
- Bombs 'like those in Bangkok'
- Schools aim to rise from ashes
- Harsh realities mar peace efforts in South
- Scars of Krue Se bloodbath refuse to go away
- Off-the-wall comments, suggestions have not helped
- Anti-terror effort needs closer cooperation: Nitya
- Old separatists still dream of a free patani
- Mahathir: Talk with exiled South leaders
- Military to enforce ban on public gatherings
- Rewards dropped for the arrest of militants - South to get 3,000 more troops after violence escalates
- Pulo alleges targeted killings
- 'Talks vital to restore peace in the South'
- No end in sight to violence in south - PREMIER'S FIRST BORDER TOUR: Surayud apologises for govt's abuses in South
- Government reaches out to the South
- The long road to peace in the deep South
- Just a local affair or prelude to terrorism?
- Insurgency 'has crossed a new threshold'
- South an elusive 'spider's web' for generals
- Southeast Asia the second front of global terror?
- Sonthi makes a needed overture in the South
- Southern blasts clear way for army plans
- Soldier killed by bomb in Narathiwat
- Volunteer shot dead in South
- Force alone won't win battle with insurgents
- Six dead in series of bombings, shootings in Yala, Narathiwat
- South militants number 3,000
- Army chief 'welcome in restive South'
- Push for Sondhi to boost his role
- Bombs, bullets kill 3 on weekend
- Bombings spark a scramble for excuses
- Don't make us your scapegoat: Malaysia
- Lull ends in savage wave of 44 blasts
- Admin body urged for South
- What chance of reconciliation in the South?
- More arrests in teachers' assault case
- Troubled school gets 20 teachers
- Letter from KUCHING REUPAH
- South militancy has been years in making
- More held over brutal beating of 2 teachers
- Army 'must respond quicker'
- 3 arrests over hostage taking
- Hopelessly adrift in the stormy south
- HOSTAGE TAKING: Army's image takes beating
- Juling's vision of peace
- RESTIVE SOUTH: 100 schools to shut for a week





ANALYSIS: The turning point that wasn’t

Published on January 27, 2005 - Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has been quick to portray last month’s arrest of a group of Islamic teachers from Dhamawitthaya and Pattana Islam Witthaya schools in Yala as “a major breakthrough” and a “turning point” in the government’s war against insurgents.

The government insisted that it had grabbed the top layer of a pyramid-like insurgent organisation, arresting seven of its leaders, while the eighth, Sapae-ing Baso, the principal of Dhamawitthaya School and the man who would supposedly serve as the prime minister of a liberated Kingdom of Pattani, was forced to go on the run.

But according to an interrogation report obtained by The Nation, it appears that the authorities were too hasty in concluding that these individuals were members of the Barasi Revolusi Nasional (BRN).

For example, the government has not said how these individuals fit into the organisation’s scheme of things or that the information leading to the arrests had come from just one individual, Abdullah Akoh, a 32-year-old ustad, or Islamic teacher, who had taught at Dhamawitthaya School.

Abdullah, who was arrested in September last year following a gunfight with a soldier, is currently facing a murder charge. He has since joined the Fourth Army’s Ustad-Help-Ustad project, which is aimed at convincing Islamic teachers, the very people whom the government has assumed to be the backbone of the current insurgency, to work with the state in exchange for possible leniency.

During an interview with The Nation late last year, Abdullah insisted that he knew only the four insurgents belonging to the cell of which he was a member, and that they received their instructions from a man named Ismail Yaralong, also known as Ustad Soh.

The young militant spoke of his anger and resentment towards the state, calling its attitude towards Thailand’s ethnic Malays racist. He said Islam had motivated him to fight for the liberation of Pattani from the Thais, whom he said he saw as invaders.

And while Abdullah may have been forthcoming with the authorities about what he knows about the insurgency, the confidential report seen by The Nation contained virtually no information on how the young ustad had come to the conclusion that the eight suspects whom the government would go on to describe as being at the top of the insurgency pyramid were BRN members.

There was nothing to suggest that Abdullah was a part of the school’s inner circle, which included Sapae-ing and Yusof Waeduramae, a senior teacher. Dhamawithaya has about 250 teachers in all.

An intelligence officer who spoke on condition of anonymity said that he did not agree with decision to arrest the eight men, saying the information leading to the decision was just too sketchy.

Despite Thaksin’s bold statement about the arrest being a big breakthrough, government officers continue to be assassinated on a daily basis, while bombing incidents - which have caused the deaths of innocent civilians - have steadily been on the rise.

Officials on the front line said that Thaksin’s statement was nothing more than wishful thinking and does not at all reflect the reality on the ground.

According to a number of agencies and people are currently being detained that have been interviewed by The Nation, this generation of insurgents is organised into small cells of four or five people. Because they are organised in such a manner, the claim that the authorities have cracked the top of the pyramid is a bit far-fetched.

Liquidating one cell does not translate into any real breakthrough in dismantling the overall structure, these officials said.

Unlike the Pattani United Liberation Organisation or the BRN of previous decades, the new generation of fighters does not control any territory or carry out gunfights in the remote hills where civilians are unaffected.

But like the past, there is more than one organisation at work, both officials and insurgents said.

The style of the new generation of attacks can be mainly characterised by the hit-and-run assassinations of government officials that have taken place. But every now and then, a massive attack is launched, such as the April 28 Krue Se Mosque stand-off or the raid on an the Army battalion last January when militants made off with more than 350 pieces of weaponry.

“This new generation of fighters is very bold,” said a former BRN member who surrendered four years ago in return for amnesty.

“We would never dream about doing the kind of things they have done,” added the former insurgent.

Unlike in the past, today’s insurgent groups have incorporated more religious elements into the struggle. Officers who have interviewed the detained insurgents said that they see themselves more and more as jihadis rather than Malay nationalists. But while the political context has changed, there is nothing to suggest that Islam has become the central factor in their struggle.

In the past, separatist groups have stated clearly that their central aim was the creation of an independent homeland. Today’s group, it seems, is motivated by revenge.

Whether the central authorities can make something out of the changes and adopt a different strategy for dealing with them remains to be seen.

For now, it seems there is no end in sight for the killings.

Supalak Ganjanakhundee


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