The answers are out there, somewhere
 The Nation
November 23, 2005 - Mercury, Jupiter and Venus were not consulted, but we had a thorough debate among senior editorial staff the other day on the political situation. While we are not by any means the most intelligent pundits on Earth, we do hope to make it up to our readers for our utter failure to predict that Sondhi Limthongkul, of all people, would eventually turn against the Empire and lead weakened Jedi troops in their fight against it. Here’s what we’ve come up with in regard to your most frequently asked questions:
Is Sondhi for real?
It depends on what you mean by “real”. For sure, he’s now Thaksin Shinawatra’s number one sworn enemy and hell-bent on sending the PM into political exile for good. But on whether Sondhi has also become a true crusader for civil liberty and media freedom, you will have to pass your own judgement.
Real or not, Sondhi has been propelled by circumstances to hero status. Thaksin must be kicking himself for pulling the media tycoon’s talk show off the air. This is the type of mistake by an autocratic leader who’s “losing it”. Instead of allowing society such channels for letting off steam, Thaksin tried to plug them, and on Friday was yielded glimpses of a very frustrated middle class on the verge of exploding. He made people curious and angry. What is it that this guy knows that makes the prime minister hate him so much? Let’s go to Lumpini.
Thaksin’s helping hand in Sondhi’s rise to superstardom knew no bounds. Billion-baht lawsuits. A court’s gag order. Intimidation from the military. You name it.
Sondhi must have been amazed himself, and only he knows whether he’s really happy with the mounting weight of expectations. Yes, the crowds for now are satisfied just to hear him mock Thaksin, but what if they start shouting, with fists in the air, “Let’s go to Rajdamnoen”?
What about the crowds?
From what we have observed, many of them are just like us – curious, or thirsty for “the other side” of the news, or simply fed up. Thaksin should not assume that this is a politically organised gathering. At any rate, the number of attendees coming to Lumpini Park should not worry him as much as the numbers of hits on the manager.co.th website on Friday, which reportedly rose from an average of 70,000 to 140,000. Organised mobs do not visit websites to send a political message.
And NGOs and political action groups haven’t even come into play yet. Sondhi’s controversial background is causing a lot of people to hold off on supporting him for now. But when a bandwagon is growing this fast, who can say what’s next?
Where do they go from here?
If we are not mistaken, the government may have come to its senses. The decision to make a strategic retreat and let Sondhi bark like a fool till he drops may work. The Lumpini crowds – loud but not that vociferous – have enjoyed Sondhi’s provocation and Thaksin’s reaction. When the latter element is missing, half the fun is gone.
Now, let’s assume Sondhi’s still packing more ammunition, with new help from those who want to turn the polite, meatball-eating audience into a yelling mob with Rambo headbands. Can this happen? Big clues will come this Friday. Keep your eyes on new faces in the crowds, high-profile guests and topics to be raised by our man of the moment. The big question is whether Sondhi is equipped or prepared to lead a large-scale anti-government protest. Will he have to pass the torch to somebody else?
Scenario A: He runs out of topics, the public loses interest and reluctant and sceptical allies are alienated. The auspicious occasion of December 5 helps cool down tension and a festive mood sets in. The volcano becomes dormant.
Scenario B: Lumpini continues to be the site of a protracted anti-government rally taking place once a week, attracting crowds through new exposure of corruption or other scandals. The volcano keeps smoking, ready to explode at any moment.
Scenario C: A big bang. If this is in fact an anti-Thaksin conspiracy, those involved may have thought the moment is ripe, that the Lumpini phenomenon must not go to waste. Sondhi will get help, or be used, or get carried away by circumstances. Confrontation will escalate, with groups that have stood on the sidelines forced to join the fray. Consequences could be unpredictable.
How’s Thaksin really feeling right now?
Like the loneliest man on Planet Earth perhaps. He has no allies outside of Thai Rak Thai, and his party members, long in the comfort zone of parliamentary domination, are rabbits in headlights when it comes to street fights.
Does he really believe in the Mercury stuff?
Sure he does. This is the one thing we are most certain about. He can sue us if he likes.
Tulsathit Taptim
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