Dangers are growing but we’re not in a crisis – yet
 The Nation
December 2, 2005 - In round 10 – the 10th of his anti-government rallies in Lumpini Park – on December 9, the maverick Sondhi Limthongkul will not quite be able to deliver a knockout blow to Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. But he has already greatly damaged Thaksin’s credibility. The invincibility of the Thai Rak Thai party has also been badly shattered.
Thaksin can still hang on to the ropes. The damage has yet to really encroach upon his legitimacy.
Sondhi has opened some wounds on the prime minister, but they’re not that deep. The situation, albeit grave, is not yet severe enough to create the kind of massive protest that would question the legitimacy of the Thaksin government.
But going forward, it will be tough for Thaksin to continue to play the old game. He knows it.
That is why he has become more economical with his words and has also consulted the alignment of his stars. He has asked his Cabinet members and staff to become more patient against the growing political pressure. He has also asked them to pay heed to public opinion.
These defensive tactics might help Thaksin muddle through for a while and avoid a major crisis of leadership. If he keeps his mouth shut and unleashes another round of populist projects to please the Thais, he might be able to recoup some of his lost popularity.
Meanwhile, Sondhi and Thaksin are vying over who is wearing the yellower T-shirt. Sondhi’s and his followers’ T-shirts feature the slogan “We’ll Fight for the King”. Thaksin has called upon Thais to wear yellow T-shirts saying “We Love the King” on Monday, to celebrate His Majesty the King’s birthday. Sondhi has accused Thaksin of improperly conducting, inside the Temple of the Emerald Buddha, a religious ceremony that is reserved for members of the Royal Family.
Indeed, the Palace has been rather uncomfortable with the two parties’ attempts to involve the Monarchy to their advantage. In a recent message, Privy Councillor General Surayud Chulanont made it clear that all parties trying to involve the Monarchy in politics must stop doing so. Political problems must be dealt with through proper political channels.
“We Love the King” is a general message showing the love and respect that Thais have for their Monarch. But “We’ll Fight for the King” raises some disturbing questions because it is not spelled out who or what the enemy may be.
Both Sondhi and Thaksin will have to exercise prudent judgement when it comes to using the colour yellow to advance their political agenda.
Why hasn’t the situation reached boiling point yet? Perhaps that will only occur if it comes to the point where the bureaucracy stops functioning because the civil servants, unsure about the nation’s political mandate, stop showing up for work.
Second, the grassroots people are not doing so badly, although their debts are rising. But if things change and the grassroots people find it hard to make ends meet and find the prices of goods increasingly hard to afford, then we’ll quickly see a crisis developing.
If economic problems worsen and start seriously affecting rural people, then we’ll see demonstrations.
Third, the middle-class, who traditionally are the ones capable of overthrowing a government, are still far from reaching a consensus. They have become disillusioned with the Thaksin administration and would like the government to deal directly with the problems of corruption, conflict of interest and cronyism, and want the media to be allowed to fully do their job.
But their force is still subdued.
Fourth, the businessmen can still run their enterprises. If the businessmen face a liquidity problem or run out of cash, then we’ll see a crisis looming.
Fifth, local and foreign investors are looking at the political situation with grave concern. If the situation does not improve, they will delay their investment projects. This will hurt economic growth and affect the entire country. Then we’ll witness a crisis.
Sixth, the other opinion leaders have yet to come out. They do not trust Sondhi, although they like his message. If more charismatic opinion leaders emerge from the shadow to challenge the government, then we’ll see a crisis.
Seventh, the allies of Thaksin are watching the political situation nervously. If they no longer support Thaksin, then we’ll see a crisis within Thai Rak Thai.
Most of these factors would have to take place at the same time and reinforce each other in order for a full-blown crisis to emerge, which could really paint Thaksin into a corner.
In the meantime, Thaksin can no longer remain complacent. He cannot afford to make any mistakes – all his moves must be the right ones from here on out.
Thanong Khanthong |
