Thaksin rapidly losing his allies and magical powers
 The Nation
November 27 , 2005 - Many political pundits have lately lined up to guess what may soon happen to the less-than-one-year-old Thaksin II government. It was not long ago that some of these experts had assumed the PM might not find it too difficult to complete a second four-year term.
Now, they’re increasingly uncertain if the PM would really stay in power until the next elections due in early 2009.
Some pundits are saying in small circles that the premier is unlikely to survive another year in office; others suspect he might not even last that long.
Things are now so different than when Thaksin Shinawatra first came to power almost five years ago. In February this year, the premier was still capable of winning over the masses, when many millions of them supported him in the election, pleased at the many things the premier had done for them in his first term.
Many of the poor remain impressed with his Bt30-per-visit healthcare programme, the
village fund and
other popular projects, which were specially designed to woo the grassroot population.
Businessmen loved his aggressive managing of the economy and reorganisation of the bureaucracy, the early exit from the IMF programme, the relatively high GDP growth rates during his first term in office, the free trade-agreements signed with several major trading partners and other successes.
Bangkokians were pleased with the premier’s pledge made during the last general election that his government would build many Skytrain and subway lines around the capital to solve traffic congestion once and for all. But the opposition Democrat Party, whose deputy leader is Bangkok’s governor, seems to have stolen the government’s thunder, in part by jump-starting the long-stalled plan to extend the Skytrain into Thon Buri -- ahead of the central government’s own mass transit plans.
While the premier continued to announce some new marketing-oriented political goodies for his supporters after winning a second term, his “magical powers” seem to have been much diminished.
On top of that, the government has also been struggling to deal with sharp oil price rises, higher inflation, an economic slowdown, widening trade and current-account deficits and unrelenting violence in the South, among other pressing issues.
While the PM’s approval rating recently plunged to below 50 per cent, the anti-government drive, led by Sondhi Limthongkul of Manager Media Group, has regained its momentum, resulting in a rapidly growing number of government critics and dissidents.
The lid of the pressure cooker is starting to shimmer, and may be ready to pop.
Among the recent major setbacks for the government are the court injunction halting the plan to float the shares of Egat Plc, the country’s largest electricity company, which dealt a severe blow to the plan to privatise the energy provider and other state enterprises; negative public reaction to the premier’s multi-libel lawsuits against Sondhi and the gag order placed on the outspoken critic; and rumours that there could be a coup. Ironically, the coup rumours came hot on the heels of a statement made publicly by the supreme commander of the armed forces that he might not be able to tolerate sharp criticisms of Sondhi anymore since the highly revered monarchy was often cited in relation to such criticism.
Then, a group of provincial police chiefs in the Northeast sought approval from a court in Yasothon province for an arrest warrant for Sondhi on lese majeste charges. Last Thursday, the court turned down the request, reasoning that there was no solid evidence that the critic had committed such wrongdoing.
In addition, the Civil Court last week made it clear that Sondhi as a mass media practitioner still has the right to criticise PM Thaksin as long as such criticism is not related to the libel suits filed by Thaksin against him.
The libel suits pending in the courtare concerned with alleged irregularities in telecom contracts awarded by the government to companies founded by the PM while he was still a businessman.
The court’s clarification meant Sondhi, whose “Thailand Weekly” show at Bangkok’s Lumpini Park last week drew more than 50,000 people, would likely remain a credible threat to the government’s stability, as his weekly shows could snowball into far larger anti-government rallies.
After all, keep your fingers crossed.
Nophakhun Limsamarnphun |
