Does Thaksin see the writing on the wall?
 The Nation
November 27 , 2005 - With the crowds continuing to grow at Lumpini Park on Friday evenings and no longer concealing their anti-government feelings, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his team must be shuddering at the thought of losing power. Perhaps they are even considering that his premiership might come to an abrupt end through something so unceremonious as a mass uprising.
Placards denouncing the massive corruption in the government and other misdeeds were propped up for all to see at last Friday’s rally, where the crowd was more organised and united than in weeks past. Their message has become more clear (and bold) as well: they no longer want Thaksin as leader.
For weeks, Thaksin and his inner circle of advisers have been frustrated by the government’s failure to come up with any workable counterstrategy to deal with the Sondhi phenomenon. As Sondhi’s popularity has risen, the public’s faith and confidence in the national leader has decayed.
The public’s waning confidence in Thaksin is clearly reflected in his face. Though he still professes to be unperturbed, the brave face he attempts to put on no longer hides the deep lines of worry for a broad range of political, economic and social problems.
These are downtimes for Thaksin. That’s unmistakable. It’s just a matter of time before such plummeting political misfortunes turn into an uncontrollable tailspin. His habitual bravado and arrogance now come across as hollow. By now he should be beginning to realise that his power base is being chipped away, corroded by the force of his friend-turned-archenemy Sondhi Limthongkul, founder of Manager Media Group.
With report after report exposing the corruption and abuses of power in the government, Sondhi has been telling the people that the nation faces grave risks if Thaksin and his team remain in power. The rampant cronyism and shamelessness could eventually destabilise the social fabric and values of our society, as more people become enticed by greed to abandon their morals and become victims of Thaksinomics’ promotion of endless consumption and ever deeper debts.
Thaksin is not Sondhi’s only target. In systematically demolishing the self-styled CEO’s credibility and image, he has made startling revelations about the mischief-making involving his political and business cronies who have been sharing the spoils. With each new account Sondhi gives of how national assets have been plundered through cosy business deals, sweetheart contracts and outright corruption, he has taken some of the glow out of Thaksin’s halo.
Sondhi has adopted a no-compromise posture. He has set December 9 as the day for what he hopes will be an even larger rally at Lumpini Park. He has asked the people to demand what they want, to make manifest their mandate for change. This could lead to street demonstrations in Bangkok and other provinces.
Thaksin and his team realise this is a major threat, a challenge to the stability of the government. They know that Sondhi’s offensive has to be stopped, but they don’t know how to do this: all of their countermoves have backfired.
The echelons of the Thai Rak Thai Party are in disarray, if not yet in real panic. Many party members have been keeping a low profile, ready to jump ship if it really looks as if there is impending calamity. Major allies are indicating that they are more interested in self-preservation than sticking their necks out.
Their instincts tell them that disaster may be coming. They want to make sure they end up on the winner’s side. They are the survivors of the collapses of previous authoritarian and military regimes. They must make personally consequential predictions about whether the current anti-government momentum is about to gain broad-based public support.
Thaksin has lost a lot of ground and has no means to recover it. Populist policy and projects with no real seed money to intoxicate the minds of the grass-roots people will no longer work. The power of his promises and soothsaying has become much diluted as more poor souls become mired in the morass of piling debts.
Can he produce more rabbits and pigeons from his bag of tricks? Certainly he cannot be counted out yet. In his latest gimmick to regain popularity, he will begin spending time in certain communities to learn about problems there and then direct the remedial course that will get the areas back on track.
But it will be difficult for him to successfully promote such a strategy now. Going around with smart ideas but no hard cash to spread around will convince the former victims of his soft sell and spin that the government does not have cash in the till to buy faith and belief in what the CEO has to say.
As of now a political confrontation appears on course. There still many days until December 9, and anything can happen. If Sondhi is safe and sound under the protection of his crowd while Thaksin remains bogged down through the lack of fresh ideas and initiatives, what was previously thought of as a remote possibility could become reality.
Sopon Onkgara |
