Things will not be the same this year for the once popular but now defunct Thai Rak Thai Party, which has now transformed into the People Power Party (PPP). Its chances of winning by a landslide are very slim.

While PPP might win most seats of partylist or proportionate MPs, the number of MP seats it would get in December would be a lot less compared to previous elections. Thai Rak Thai won 67 of the 100 partylist MP seats in the 2005 election.

In this year’s election, the proportionate vote covers 80 House seats in eight zones. There are 10 seats up for grabs in each zone and it is estimated that PPP will get less than 40.

The Democrat Party will probably finish in second place.

Here are the reasons why PPP’s chances to win by a landslide are slim:

Firstly, the new election system is different because votes will not be calculated according to a nationwide count, but will instead be counted on a the basis of eight zones, each of which has 10 partylist MPs.

Secondly, some former Thai Rak Thai MPs have joined other parties such as Puea Paendin, Matchima Thipataya, Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana and Chart Thai. This means their popularity would not ensure votes for one single party.

Thirdly, PPP’s popularity is not at as great as it was during former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s reign.

Fourthly, the calculation of votes for partylist MPs will benefit small parties because they will be given the chance to win a seat even if their votes are below average, which will clearly put PPP at a disadvantage.

Based on a voter turnout of 60 to 65 per cent, it is estimated that around 350,000 to 400,000 votes would win a partylist seat.

Here is an analysis on how big political groups like the Democrats and People Power are going to fare in the December 23 election, and the chances of smaller and new parties have in winning seats in the proportional vote

Zone 1: Thaksin’s allies face tough battle

In the 2005 elections, Thai Rak Thai won with 70 per cent and the Democrats got 20 per cent. The rest of the votes went to other parties. However, things are different this year. For instance, this year votes in Sukhothai would belong to Matchima Thipataya led by banned Thai Rak Thai executive member Somsak Thepsuthin.

So, PPP is estimated to win with 60 per cent or six seats out of 10.

PPP candidates in this zone are led by Thaksin’s close aide Yongyuth Tiyapairat, Thaksin’s brother-in-law Somchai Wongsawat and former MPs Sompong Amornwiwat, Karn Thienkaew, Samphan Lertnuwat and Thavorn Treeratnanarong.

Two seats should belong to the Democrats, which is led by Therdpong Chaiyanan and Samart Ratchpolsit, while Somsak’s wife and secretary-general of the Matchima Thipataya party, Anongwan, is also likely to win a seat.

The last seat is likely to be battled out between the No 1 candidates of three parties – Anek Laothammatas of Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana, Praphat Panyachatrak of Chart Thai and Suradej Yasawat of Puea Paendin.

Since Anek and Prapat hail from Lampang, they would have a tough time competing with a former senator who won more than 100,000 votes in the previous Senate election.

Zone 2: No clear contender for supremacy

10 seats in this zone are likely to be shared by several parties. Each province in this zone would also be shared, such as Nakhon Sawan, which is the political base of PPP, the Democrats and Matchima Thipataya. Their candidates are former MP and senator Sunai Julpongsathorn of PPP, Malinee Sukvejvorakij of the Democrats and Banyin Tangpakorn of Matchima Thipataya.

Phichit is the political base of Paitoon Kaewthong of the Democrats and Pradit Pattaraprasit of Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana.

Chaiyaphum was a Thai Rak Thai base, but this time it’s that of former MP Wutthichai Sanguanwongchai, who is running for the Democrats. It is predicted that PPP and the Democrats will compete for one seat.

Votes in Khon Kaen are likely to be shared between Suwit Khunkitti of Puea Paendin and the PPP candidate. In central provinces, such as Uthai Thani and Lop Buri, PPP should get votes, but Chart Thai also has a chance to win some seats.

No particular party is expected to win by a majority in this zone. However, PPP is estimated to get at least three or four seats, the Democrats may get two or three, Chart Thai may get two, while Puea Paendin, Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana, and Matchima Thipataya may get one seat each.

Zone 3: PPP set to sweep the board

It is estimated that PPP will swallow the majority of at least seven or eight seats, because Thai Rak Thai won 80 per cent of party-list votes in this area in previous elections. The fact that voters in this zone rejected the charter on the national referendum in August could also be an indication that Thai Rak Thai is still popular.

PPP candidates have a strong standing in this zone. They are either former senators or former MPs such as Srimuang Charoensiri, Chavalit Vichayasut, Sukhumphan Ngonkham, Thanathep Timsuwan, and Kittisak Hattasongkroa.

Puea Paendin, which has former police chief Pracha Promnok as its top candidate, is likely to grab a seat. For the others, it will be a battle between former Amnat Charoen MP Suthat Ngeunmuen of the Democrats, former Sakon Nakhon senator Maleerat Kaewka of Matchima Thipataya and former Udon Thani MP Chokesaman Silawong of Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana.

Zone 4: Strong opposition awaits PPP

According to the result of the national referendum, Buri Ram is the only province in this zone that overwhelmingly voted yes on the charter, even though it looks like Thai Rak Thai or PPP remain popular. Thai Rak Thai won 80 per cent of party-list votes in the previous election, but this year PPP is not expected to win more than six seats.

This is because the top candidates of other parties are strong, such as former Ubon Ratchathani MP Vitoon Nambutr of the Democrats, former Buri Ram senator and MP Karun Sai-ngam of Matchima Thipataya, former Roi Et senator Surachai Danaitangtrakul of Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana and former deputy public health minister Wallop Thainua of Puea Paendin.

The PPP list is led by secretary-general Surapong Suebwonglee, veteran politician Chai Chidchob, Phermpoon Thongsri, former Ubon Ratchathani MP Adisak Pokakulakanont and former Chiang Rai senator Wirun Fuensaeng.

Zone 5: Stakes high in Nakhon Ratchasima

This zone consists of provinces in three regions. Nakhon Ratchasima in the Northeast, Sa Kaew, Pathum Thani, Nakhon Nayok, Prachin Buri and Chachoengsao in the Central region, and Chon Buri, Rayong, Chanthaburi and Trat in the East.

Nakhon Ratchasima has the most eligible voters in this zone with 1.8 million from a total 5.6 million. The stakes in this province are high; the result of the voting will be significant to the election victory.

In the previous election, the defunct TRT received 70 per cent of the votes, the Democrats received less than 10 per cent, and the rest voted for Mahachon and Chart Thai.

In this election, Suwat has moved to the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana and the votes will shift to his new party. Votes in Nakhon Ratchasima will be shared between Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana and the PPP.

Kraisak Choonhavan, son of late former Prime Minister Chatichai who modernised Korat, leads the Democrats’ list. The party will receive a few votes from the province, but when it adds the party’s political base in other provinces such as Nakhon Nayok, Rayong, Chanthaburi, and Trat - it is likely to win two seats.

Most of the rest of the provinces in this zone are the PPP’s base, except Sa Kaew, which is held by Snoh Thienthong of Pracharaj and Chon Buri for the Chart Thai.

It is estimated that the PPP will get five seats, which are Wirun Techapaiboon, Somphol Keyuraphan, Sudarat’s father, Asanee Cherdchai, Thaksin’s spokesman Noppadon Pattama and Wutthipong Kittithanesuan.

Gen Chettha Thanajaro and Wirat Ratanasate of the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana and Kraisak and Somkiate Pongpaiboon of Democrats will win two seats each.

The last seat will be a competition between candidate No 1 of the Pracharaj, and Snoh and Akraphol Sorasuchart of the Chart Thai. The latter has a higher chance as the Chart Thai has more eligible voters than Sa Kaew.

Zone 6:  “The group of death” 

The contest in Zone 6 appears to be hotting up in the capital, where party leaders, key figures, and heavyweight politicians are standing.

Four party leaders, Abhisit Vejjajiva of the Democrat Party, Samak Sundaravej of the PPP, Prachai Leophairatana of Matchima Thipataya, and Pramuan Ruchanaseree of Prachamati will contest this zone.

The PPP is also represented in Zone 6 by Chalerm Yoobam-rung, Ming-kwan Saengsuwan, the former MCOT president and anti-coup campaigners Jatuporn Phromphan and Manit Jitchanklab.

Other Democrats to contest the zone will be Charoen Kanthawong, MR Sukhum-bhand Paribatra, Pussadee Tamthai, Prakob Jirakiti, Buranaj Smutharaks, Anik Amaranand, Prakob Sangto, Isara Sunthornwat and Chivavej Vejjajiva.

Pracharaj of Snoh Thienthong has veteran actor Sombat Methanee to lead the list in this zone.

The contest in this zone is a clash of titans. There will be some party leaders or heavyweights who will lose the race such as newcomer politician Prachai or Pramuan, who have no political base in this zone.

Most seats are likely to be shared between the two big parties, the PPP and the Democrats as their strong hold.

The Democrats are likely to win over the PPP, as the latter are at a bit of a disadvantage.

Bangkok and suburban voters are better informed about political developments than their compatriots in the provinces. Unlike voters in provinces, Bangkok voters usually make their decision at the last minute. In the anti-Thaksin protest last year many Bangkok residents joined the protest.

Jatuporn and Manit, who emerged at the last minute on the list, maybe backfire on the PPP. As they are anti-coup campaigners voters, might turn down any candidate who tends to create more conflict. Even within the PPP, many candidates for the Bangkok seats said the two would cause an erosion of votes.

The Suan Dusit’s latest poll found the Democrats would win 46 per cent while the PPP would get 30 per cent in the December election.

For Nonthaburi, the defunct TRT won 60 per cent of the party-list system in the previous election while the Democrats won 30 per cent. The rest belonged to Chart Thai and Mahachon, which this time has moved to the Chart Thai.

For Samut Prakan, the defunct TRT won 70 per cent and the Democrats won 20 per cent, while the Chart Thai and Mahachon shared 10 per cent.

It is estimated the Democrats will win four to five seats and the PPP four seats. The last seat may be a competition between Deputy Chart Thai Party leader Yutthasak Sasiprapha (candidate No 1 of Chart Thai) and MR Kitiwattana Chaiyan of Puea Paendin. Yutthasak is likely to win this seat because the party has a strong base in Don Muang district.

The others two party leaders, Prachai and Pramuan are likely to lose out as they have no political base in the zone.

Zone 7: Three-way share of honours

Most provinces in this zone are in the Central region. Seats here are likely to be shared among three parties; four seats for the PPP, and three seats each for the Democrats and the Chart Thai.

In the previous election the TRT won most votes in each province in this zone except in the Democrat’s base in Ranong, Chumphon, Prachuab Khiri Khan and Phetchaburi. Although most of the provinces in the Central region are in Banharn Silapa-archa’s Chart Thai’s stronghold, the party only won the most votes in Suphan Buri.

The PPP list is led by Chaiya Sasomsap, Sornchai Montriwat, Chavarin Latthasaksiri, Rewat Sirinukul, and Viroj Pao-in.

The Democrats list is led by Manoonkrit Roopkachorn, Niphon Visityutthasatr, Suwaroj Palang, and Attaporn Polabutr.

The Chart Thai list is led by Banharn Silapa-archa’s daughter Kanchajana, Praphat Phothasuthon, Jongchai Thiengtham and Buppha Robroo.

Zone 8: Democrats to triumph in stronghold

This zone is the weakest area for the PPP and the strongest area for the Democrats. The latter is likely to win up to eight or nine seats.

Chuan Leekpai, chief adviser for the Democrats, will lead the party-list, followed by Banyat Bantadtan, Trairong Suwankhiri, Jurin Laksanavisit, Chamni Sakdiseth, and Niphon Boonyamanee. All are former party-list and constituency MPs.

It is almost impossible to weaken the Democrat’s long-established stronghold in the South. It will be very difficult for a rival party to win any seat in that area. In the 2005 election the Democrats won around 2.5 million votes from the total of 3.9 million. The Democrats are likely to sweep eight to nine seats.

The rest will be a fight between member of the Wadah group Areephen Uttrasin of the PPP and Nikorn Chamnong of the Chart Thai or Manop Patanawong of Puea Paendin. But Areephen seems to have the best chance as his group has been established in the restive south for a long time.

Somroutai Sapsomboon,
Jintana Panyaarvudh
The Nation