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The Great Divide
10 February 2006 |
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Polarisation
Thailand is going through a political divide unseen in modern history. Thaksin knows his political constituencies, who benefit from his carrot. The rest get the stick. |
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| Thaksin’s friends |
Thaksin’s Foes |
Parliament
“Independent” institutions
Bureaucracy
TV and other media
Big business
Grassroots people
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Democrats
Academics and intellectuals
NGOs, activist groups, students
Some media
Small businesses squeezed to pay tax
Middle class |
| Source: Bangkokian |
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"Shut up! you're not my customers anyway." |
The line is clearly drawn in the sand. You are either a friend or an enemy of Thaksin Shinawatra.
Right after a group of academics from Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Political Science insisted earlier this week on another statement to condemn his leadership and call for his resignation, Thaksin yelled back at them.
He slammed the academics for having virtually no understanding of the democratic system since he is a legitimate leader with the backing of 19 million voters.
He could care less about the academics. Their votes do not count for him because they do not belong to his market segment.
While the antiThaksin coalition, triggered by Sondhi Limthongkul of the Manager Group, is gaining ground and broadening its base, Thaksin’s supporters have also come out in equal number to pour cold water on their resentment. Thaksin has matched his political opponents punch for punch.
Never before in Thai history have we experienced such a bitter political divide. There are more and more people who hate him. And even more who still love him.
Removing Thaksin’s from power is not as easy as toppling the Suchinda government during the May tragedy in 1992. Then all elements came into play to trigger Suchinda’s downfall. Suchinda did not come to power with a mandate. He breached his own words that he would not assume the premiership.
Chamlong Srimuang led the rally. Other parties also stepped in to grill Suchinda: General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, the Democrats, opposing politicians, Young Turks. When the rally drew blood, Suchinda had no choice but to go.
The situation now is different from the tumultuous period leading up to the May tragedy. Sondhi went berserk with his solo campaign to oust Thaksin. He has a good message, but he is a bad messenger. His rally has hurt Thaksin, but it can never topple the leader.
If the rally is to gain further momentum, it will have to be elevated to another level, with a broader coalition. Fresh faces are needed. But the battle has only just begun.
Don’t forget that Thaksin has come to power with full legitimacy. He is the first leader under the new Constitution of 1997.
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"Come, I have chocolate cake waiting for you." |
He played no role in drafting the Constitution but has mustered control of Parliament from two general elections. His strong political status guarantees that charges of unethical conduct or immoral leadership will not harm him.
If Thaksin were to go, it would be because of his breach of the law, leading to an impeachment process within democratic means.
Thaksin knows exactly what he is up to. He is confident that he will be able to hang on to power because of his effective control over the key constituencies of Thailand from the outset.
Thaksin is in full control of Parliament, both the lower house and the Senate. All independent institutions have been rendered impotent and brought under his sway. The bureaucrats serve him effectively for fear of losing their jobs. He enjoys positive coverage from TV and other media.
About 90 per cent of the Thai people get their news from TV stations, which are under government control. Big business benefits from the Thaksin government’s policy to stimulate growth and promote the stock market. And grassroots people benefit from his populist policies. Some 19 million people voted for Thaksin in the last election.
With these constituencies under his spell, Thaksin can afford to ignore other constituencies: opposition Democrats, academics, NGOs and other activist groups, students, some media, small businesses squeezed to pay tax and the middle class.
Now you begin to understand why Thailand is facing a bitter political divide. Those who oppose Thaksin do not belong to his market segment anyway. It is like he is selling Red Bull to the masses and he does not care what those who drink milk say about his product.
In the meantime, Thaksin has just sold Shin Corp for Bt73.2 billion. The money piles up like a mountain. Everybody is looking at his wealth with awe. Thaksin knows their weakness. They all want a piece of his chocolate cake. So he can always buy his time in power.
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