The curse of public expectations

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Sondhi Limthongkul, the maverick newsman, has asked the Thai public to show up in strength – to the tune of 500,000 – at his anti-Thaksin rally at Lumpini Park on December 9. On that day, through his "Thailand Weekly" talk show, he will be disclosing damaging evidence aimed at knocking out the government.

If you calculate quickly in your head, you would not think that Sondhi can possibly garner such a huge-sized crowd. A half million people are not easy to mobilise. And by pledging to produce a mega-mob, Sondhi has created expectations that he may not be able to fulfil.

In politics, the ultimate art is to manage public expectations. The goal in itself is not as important as managing public expectations to create a feel-good factor. If you announce to the public that you intend to raise Bt10 million to help those affected by the tsunami disaster, and you end up raising Bt4 million, you’ll be judged a failure. Why? Because you have failed to meet your goal, although Bt4 million is whopping big pot of money and should be considered the proof of a successful fund-raising campaign.

On the other hand, if you set your goal at Bt1 or Bt2 million and you end up raising Bt4 million, you can proudly proclaim your success story. It is all about managing public expectations. "Promise small and deliver big," was the motto of Rudy Guiliani, New York City’s most successful mayor.

Is Sondhi falling into his own trap by creating a sense of over-expectation? What will he have to say if he attracts a crowd of only 50,000 on December 9?

He will be judged a failure. Sondhi is the only person in this country who can rally huge crowds behind him, but if their numbers fall short, he’s an instant has-been.

By contrast, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is the first leader of this country to have drawn up a strategy to manage public expectations. He has been very conscious about confidence building in order to rally support behind his administration’s policy to bring the country back on an economic recovery track.

But it is a flawed strategy. Initially, it appeared to work. By controlling the press, Thaksin hoped to bombard the public with good news. But Thaksin and Somkid Jatusripitak, his first finance minister, consistently over-stated their goals, although deep inside they were not certain whether they could really prop up the economy. Nevertheless, Thaksin and his top Cabinet bragged of a GDP growth of 7-8 per cent a year, the elimination of poverty in six years, free education and almost free medical service, Thailand as a regional hub for fashion, food, tourism, automobiles . . . you name it.

Luckily for Thaksin, the Thai economy, which bottomed out in 1998-2001 following the financial crisis in 1997, began to stage a recovery in 2002 on the back of exports and an improvement in the global economy. Suddenly, Thaksin’s boasts – no matter how wildly exaggerated – succeeded in meeting expectations because of the economic rebound from the bottom.

Thaksin has not changed track in his management of mass psychology. But his unrealistic goals cannot be accomplished forever. Like Sondhi, Thaksin has been creating a sense of over-expectation and people have begun to realise that the long-term goals he has declared will never come to pass. In the context of public perception, Thaksin is going to be judged a failure.

Thaksin said the GDP would grow at more than 5 per cent. So why is it scraping along at 4 per cent?

He said he would eliminate poverty in six years. Why are most Thais saddled with even more debt?

He said he would end the southern unrest in three months. Why has the bloody conflict been dragging on for two years with no end in sight?

He said he would deal with corruption without the need to see any receipts. Why has nobody in the government been implicated in corruption scandals?

He said he would reform the education system. Why he has been forced to backtrack under pressure from the local teachers?

He said he would create entrepreneurs through the Village Fund. Why is it used to buy mobile phones and motorcycles instead of investing in enterprises that create jobs?

Now you begin to see why Thaksin is doomed to be judged a failure. He has set his political goals at such a lofty level that even he knows he will never achieve them.

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Shopping like there is no tomorrow

Incidentally, Siam Paragon will launch its grand opening on that same day – November 9. Its management expects that 200,000 visitors will flock to Southeast Asia’s largest shopping complex. Between Sondhi and Siam Paragon, who will attract the larger crowd? You can make a sure bet that more people will go to Siam Paragon to listen to big-name singers than to Lumpini Park to listen to Sondhi’s anti-government message.

This is not just typical for Thailand. All over the world people are becoming less interested in politics or national problems. What they want is shopping and entertainment. Consumerism has prevailed.

A friend of Bangkokian told him of a study comparing Europe in 1890 and 1990.

Back in 1890, Europeans were dedicated to politics and religion. People belonged to political debating societies and religious denominations.

In 1990, things changed completely. Europeans were more interested attending sports events than church. They substituted shopping for political debate. The younger generation is completely disinterested in politics.

You could apply this research to America too.

The best selling newspaper in the US is the National Enquirer, a trash tabloid devoted to Hollywood gossip. The second best seller is TV Guide. In the UK, the top newspaper is The Sun, whose biggest twin attractions are the bare breasts of the Page 3 Girl.

Now in Thailand, there is a growing concern that Thais no longer visit temples or to listen to the sermons of learned monks. One recent proposal was to have a monk stay in the corner of a department store so that Thai people could have better access to Buddhism. Thais feel more alienated from temples than ever before. Like Westerners, they are hooked on consumerism and entertainment. Thai culture now revolves around shopping and petty talk on mobile phones.

You may feel sad about this trend, but it is a fact of life, just like everywhere else in the world.