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Jaturon, the dark horse |
If you think that things will turn for the better after Thaksin Shinawatra’s announcement of his temporary leave, you’re wrong.
Tomorrow the Central Administrative Court will rule on whether the Election Commission has committed any legal violation in its decision to invite candidates from other parties to take part in the repeat elections in 39 constituencies. This follows the Democrat Party’s complaint that the EC does not have the legal authority to invite new candidates to stand in the repeat elections but must organise them with the old candidates until they win at least 20 per cent of the eligible votes.
If the Central Administrative Court accepts the case that the EC does not have the legal authority to hold the April 23rd election, it will issue an injunction against it. The EC would then suffer an irreparable blow to its credibility. The whole snap election will be left in limbo.
Even if the Central Administrative Court rules in favour of the EC, it is still uncertain whether Parliament would have all the 500 MPs needed to form a quorum to open the first session.
The Democrats’ position is to hang on to its initial strategy of calling for Thaksin’s outright resignation, which would also nullify the caretaker Cabinet. This would pave the way for His Majesty the King to appoint an interim government under Article 7 of the Constitution that would start the political reform process.
Thai Rak Thai is racing against the odds to have Parliament open even without all 500 MPs. Their attitude is: this is the best results of the election, so let’s go with whatever the number of available MPs. The EC would try to wrap up the election results. Then the Constitution Court would be asked whether it is constitutional to open the new Parliament despite the abnormal outcome of the election. If the Constitution Court says yes, the new Parliament will be completely dominated by the Thai Rak Thai MPs since the opposition has boycotted the election.
Thai Rak Thai may want to appoint a lame-duck prime minister who is the least controversial in order to keep the situation afloat. Apart from Bhokin Palakul or Somkid Jatusripitak, Jaturon Chaisaeng has been rumoured to be one of the dark horses.
Then the Constitution would be up for a rewrite, after which it will be put to a referendum. Nobody knows how long this process will take but the rewrite will concentrate on less than a dozen Articles. If the Thai people say yes to the new Constitution, then Parliament would be dissolved, paving the way for a new election.
Can this option take place? If not, chances are high that we’ll see Article 7.
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