Military keeps everyone guessing

So whose side is the military on?

At least at this critical juncture, the Army under General Anupong Paochinda appeared to be supporting Somchai Wongsawat, the prime minister.

The People's Alliance for Democracy has been staging anti-government rallies by banking on hopes that if the People Power Party-led government does not resign under pressure, the military would take its side and force the government out openly or behind the scenes. The PAD is now caught in its own trap. It can only get out of this trap with more support from the critical mass, which must number more than 100,000 at least.

Earlier in the day, Somchai assured that the military would not stage a coup. He said the military, including Anupong, were behind him and had given him the assurance.

Somchai held a meeting with the top military brass to assess the crisis situation after police played hardball by using tear gas and weapons to disperse the crowd surrounding Parliament in the early morning as the prime minister was about to deliver his policy statement.

There were clashes between the protesters, who numbered between 20,000 and 30,000, and the police throughout the long day with one death in a suspected car bomb and hundreds of injuries. It looked like a mini civil war in the capital. But the police forces did not belong to the Metropolitan Police Command Centre. They were largely members of the Border Patrol Police, who kept on shooting tear gas at the crowd without any second thoughts.

Late in the evening, the protesters retreated to Government House, which they have been occupying for a month and a half. Suriyasai Katasila, one of the leaders of the PAD, warned that the riot police might storm Government House to disperse them.

The violence followed on from the clashes on September 2, which led the Samak Sundaravej government to declare a state of emergency. It occurred two weeks before the Supreme Court is to issue a verdict on ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his wife Khunying Pojaman in the Ratchadaphisek land deal. The couple has since jumped bail and sought political asylum in Britain.

The crisis situation is similar to a build-up of the May 1992 tragedy when the Suchinda Kraprayoon government employed force to disperse the crowd from Rajdamnoen Road. Then there were more than 200,000 people on the streets, with Lt-General Chamlong Srimuang as the leader. Now Chamlong is also the leader of the PAD, but he is issuing orders for the last war from prison, banking on more support from the Bangkok middle class and Thais from other parts of the country.

The military is coolly letting all sides guess its ultimate motives.