No upset victory expected in city polls
Two leading pollsters say they doubt if there will be an upset victory in the upcoming Bangkok gubernatorial election."Based on previous elections, the vote outcome has reflected tracking polls," Abac Poll director Noppadon Kannika said yesterday.
He said tracking polls in 1996, 2000 and 2004 had proved reliable for predicting an outcome. However, he admitted that this year's tracking results might be slightly distorted due to political divisiveness.
For instance, respondents in the opposition camp are reluctant to reveal their voting preference, hence they are classified as undecided, he said, adding that the number of undecided voters was not large enough to change the outcome.
Nevertheless, he said, the two key rivals - Democrat Sukhumbhand Paribatra and Pheu Thai's Pongsapat Pongcharoen - might outpace the other if the number of votes go either above or below the margin of error.
For instance, leading candidate Pongsapat is predicted to win if he gets 36-50 per cent of the votes cast, but he might lose the race if he wins less than 36 per cent. Meanwhile, Sukhum-bhand has been predicted to win 27-41 per cent of the votes, but will win if he garners more than 41 per cent.
Suan Dusit Poll director Sukhum Chaloeysap said four or five tracking polls showed similar results even though different methods were used for sampling. "I think there is a very small chance of voters changing their decision," he said, adding that the election outcome will be as predicted.
He said an upset could only happen under due to uncontrollable variables, such as a sudden change in weather that might keep voters at home.