One economic push factor comes from unconventional “Abenomics” as the new administration and the Bank of Japan pump out more money at low interest rates. Domestic production cannot absorb it all, given that labour and other costs remain high, despite the managed drop in the value of the yen. The triple tragedy of eathquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown in 2011 also shows the potential vulnerability of keeping too much production at home.
But the strongest push for the Japanese comes from China. The recent and ongoing dispute between the two Asian giants over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands is much larger than the rocks and islets themselves. Some security analysts regard the issue a potential trigger point to a wider conflict.
The riots that followed in 2012 across Chinese cities against Japanese producers and products moreover suggest that Beijing cannot or will not rein in its citizens. Some in Tokyo also feel that China is assuming a sense of superiority to assert pressure on Japan as never before.
There are also pull factors in looking to Asean and India. Amidst global uncertainties, these emerging markets represent some of the best prospects. Especially for larger markets like Indonesia and India, being in or nearby is also necessary to better understand and deal with barriers to imports and doing business. The opening of Myanmar has also captured the attention of many.
Japanese companies are no strangers to the region and can build on past ties and experience. There is, however, a need to re-examine and realise that not all things are as they were. Three key changes bear special notice.
First, more countries are becoming more democratic and complex. Some investors may long for the days of strongmen like Suharto, or when China first opened, when deals were pushed quickly from the top down, whether corrupt or clean.
India was never like that, and nor is today’s Indonesia. Land grabs, poor conditions and wages for workers, and the ill effects of pollution: all of these are resisted these days, and the media brings attention quickly to such issues.
Societies will be the better for that awareness, to better manage foreign investment. But foreign investors must learn to navigate and managed a much more multifaceted landscape.
Take corruption and special relations. Many countries will not move without palms being greased and connections bought. With freer media, however, there is a public outcry against the old ways of sealed envelopes and secret bank accounts.
A second new dimension is that a more regional approach is required. Past investments were largely in one country or another, and then linked back to Japan. This is changing.
Disruptions – like the 2011 floods in Thailand – show the risk of choosing just a single base abroad. Spreading production across more countries will lessen that exposure but can only be possible if those countries are more closely integrated. Japanese and other multinational investors will do well therefore to give attention to the Asean Economic Community, set to take effect in 2015 and, further, links between Asean and India.
As rules change, corporations must also adjust internally to take a truly regional approach. In this, many Japanese corporations face some disadvantage. Many that come to the region simply bring with them managers from Japan. Anecdotally, a Western multinational seems more likely to have its regional operations headed by a local.
Yet the present and emerging demands across Asean and India will be for more localisation – both in company leadership and higher value product content. Government incentives and social expectations will therefore push the Japanese to change the ways they operate in Asia. Although the precise levels differ, these trends are evident from Singapore to Thailand and Indonesia to newly opened Myanmar. If Japanese companies return looking for the old Asia of strongmen, cheap land and servile, low-wage labour, their expectations will be frustrated.
In the Fukuda doctrine of the 1970s, the Japanese were gracious to speak of an equal relationship. The reality of that period was that the rest of Asia lagged several steps behind. Today, however, leading companies and more developed economies in Asia show a more substantial equality in working with Japan.
The renewed interest and vigour of Japan – both in the government and corporate sectors – can build new partnerships across the region. However, it will need more than a wish to be anywhere but China. The Japanese will need to look at engaging other Asians in new ways.
Simon Tay is chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs and associate professor at the National University of Singapore’s Faculty of Law. He is also senior consultant at WongPartnership, a Singapore-based law firm with regional practices.