The Nation



On the way to a failed state?

The socio-political drama presently unfolding in Thailand may very well follow the following unfortunate scenario: The Army will not intervene this time and stage their customary coup (something the protest leaders desperately want) since this would cause an international uproar and widespread condemnation.

The democratically elected Pheu Thai government will not give in to pressure from a minority protest movement, the elections will be held on February 2, the protest group will try their best to sabotage the proceedings, and of course, the election results will be declared nul and void.The protesters will then intimidate and hinder the workings of government that will eventually come to a standstill. Foreign investors will lose their patience and start withdrawing investments from Thailand with serious negative consequences for the stock exchange and the economy. The country will slide down the path of anarchy and the rule of law will be only a distant memory.

What started as Suthep's "noble" crusade against corruption may very well end in a civil war and a failed state.

George Redelinghuys


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