Democrats likely to win next Sunday, but ...

Ref: "Who will win the election on March 3", Letters, yesterday.

Although polls show Pheu Thai is leading, I agree with Vorapot Ruckthum's prediction that the Democrats will win the Bangkok election on March 3.

I use a different method, though. Vorapot goes with a model of conceptualisations, sub-themes, sub-items and "theory of switching cost", among others, which is convoluted. I don't hold a PhD, let alone a bachelor degree, but I apply the knowledge of basic statistics and probability I learned in high school.

Probability density function and Chi-square distribution indicate Bangkokians love the status quo - piles of garbage, stinking canals, filthy footpaths, etc - and they would like to see the completion of the futsal arena in Nong Chok.

Considering continuity correction and the cumulative distribution function, Bangkokians also want to see the operation of giant water tunnels and the replacement of dummy surveillance cameras.

Moreover, the Bangkok legislature is dominated by the Democrats, who are trumpeting that if Pheu Thai wins, Bangkok will be annexed by the Shinawatra family and Thaksin will be exonerated.

Ironically, I think it is good for Pheu Thai if it loses the election. Winning means the Democrats may go with a new formidable leader, someone like Surin Pitsuwan. Pheu Thai is better off with the Democrat's current leadership.

Somsak Pola

Bangkok