A collision course seems inevitable

Thailand is caught in the midst of a global power play.

This follows three bomb blasts in Bangkok on Tuesday allegedly involving Iranians, one of whom blew off his own legs during an attack on police who were in pursuit. The police now indicate that six suspects were involved in a plot aimed at hitting Israeli targets in Bangkok. The Israelis have come out to link the Bangkok bomb incidents with those in India and Georgia recently. The Iranians have categorically denied the claim, saying that it is all a set-up by the Israelis, who may launch a war against Iran.

It is a lose-lose proposition for Thailand no matter how the authorities resolve this bomb incident. Israel, backed by the United States and Nato, could go to war against Iran. At the same time, Iran is flexing its muscles, ready to defend itself against threats from the US and its allies. The US, in particular, is claiming that Iran is building up its nuclear capabilities, which could pose a risk to stability in the Middle East. But Iran claims that it is developing nuclear power for energy - not for weapons of mass destruction. Still, US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta recently said that there is a high possibility of an Israeli pre-emptive strike against Iran in the coming months.

As a neutral nation, Thailand can't please either the Iranians or the Israelis in this dangerous game. Every step ahead should be taken with extra caution to avoid resentment from both parties. We have practically nothing to gain from this growing complication in global geo-politics.

The world may now be on the brink of World War III. There is an equal possibility that the Israelis will strike against Iran first, and vice versa. For if the war is to be inevitable, the one who strikes first holds the advantage. After Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, Syria is next in line as far as the Western powers are concerned. Iran is the ultimate prize, which has to be won over at all cost to fulfil the ambition of Western domination over the region.

Let us put ourselves in Iran's shoes. Iran will certainly have learnt a hard lesson from the West's military actions in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, who were all static targets of heavy bombardments. Iran is now facing economic sanctions from the Western powers. If Iran were to stay defensive, it would certainly be wiped out. But if Iran were to fight back, it might be destroyed but could still have a chance of survival. Iran might not have developed a nuclear weapons capability as yet, but it can easily source nuclear warheads from the black market, from one or any of the former Soviet states. If either scenario came to pass, Iran and Israel would both be equipped with nuclear weapons, which could easily widen the war and destroy this planet.

If an Israeli-Iranian war were to happen, it would bring in the non-Nato superpowers. Russia and China have clearly indicated that they support Syria and Iran. They would consider an attack against Iran as an attack against their own security. India is another country that belongs to this bloc. Russia, China and India are all nuclear superpowers.

China has recently forged closer relations with Iran through a bilateral barter agreement that circumvents the use of the US dollar as a medium of financial transactions. Iran will sell oil to China for goods, without involving the US dollar. This agreement is a direct challenge to the petrol-dollar system put in place by the US after it de-linked the dollar from the gold standard in 1972. Since then, any trade or transaction in oil has to be conducted in US dollars as the medium of exchange. This allows the US almost a free hand to print the dollar and create a global demand for it.

India has also scored a huge gain by entering into an oil-for-rupee agreement with Iran. Under this deal, India will be able to purchase oil from Iran in rupees rather than the US dollar. China and India are directly challenging the petrol-dollar system.

The economic and financial sanctions against Iran are taking their toll on the Iranian economy. Soon there could be internal turmoil if the government fails to tackle rising prices and economic hardship. If Iran is driven further into the corner as a result of the sanctions, it may retaliate by trying to seal off the Strait of Hormuz, through which oil shipments from the Middle East are shipped to the wider world. At that point, we would certainly witness a military showdown. We all have to hold our breath as a collision course looks inevitable.