In all likelihood, the Anti-Corruption Commission will eventually find caretaker PM Yingluck guilty of malfeasance over the disastrous rice-pledging scheme.
This decision will probably begin the splitting of Thailand in earnest. I say this because the delicate, high-society Yingluck wouldn’t last two hours inside a bad spa, let alone two years inside a prison, and she knows it. Also, the Shinawatra clan isn’t famous for taking responsibility for misdeeds it has committed. Under normal circumstances, Yingluck would, like her brother, simply flee Thailand in order to avoid incarceration. However, that will probably not prove to be necessary. This is because her adoring police force would never arrest her under any circumstances. Instead, the most likely scenario is that Yingluck’s handlers will set up a prime minister’s office for her in Chiang Mai. Once that takes place, you might as well call the North and Northeast Lannaland, Thaksinland, Redshirtland, or whatever its inhabitants ultimately choose for their new nation. Shortly after that, Thaksin will return in “glorious” triumph to formally take the reins of power in said new state. Then Yingluck may resume her shopping, spending long hours in upscale coffee shops with her friends, being with her family, and of course returning to her sinecure. In other words, she can go back to being the society lady she was meant to be.
This (looming) act of virtual secession may not turn out to be such a horrible disaster for two reasons: First, it will keep the red shirts out of Bangkok and thereby forestall a bloodbath. Second, the original nation of Thailand will get to enjoy politics that is no longer dominated by the megalomaniac Thaksin gang. One could get used to that.