Cambodia, as the new Asean chair, will seek to consolidate the community of 600 million Asean citizens and increase the grouping's bargaining power with the world's major powers.
Ten years have elapsed since Cambodia chaired the Asean summit for the first time, in 2002, three years after its admission. Now, Phnom Penh is more democratic and richer and has gained more experience in handling the Asean scheme of things. Indeed, the current host has the potential to reset the grouping’s global standing and relations with all of its powerful dialogue partners. Undeniably, Cambodia would like to leave behind a tangible legacy under the leadership of Prime Minister Hun Sen – the region’s longest-reigning leader. It is not surprising that Cambodia has chosen a simple slogan of “One Community, One Destiny” – reflecting the nation’s fundamental Buddhist values and new-found confidence. In short, at least for the time being, Asean’s destiny is now in Cambodia’s hand.
There are at least three areas in which Phnom Penh can take the lead.
First, as an emerging developing country, Cambodia can serve as a linchpin to narrow the development gap between the new and old Asean members. The country is in a good position to do so. During the past decade, Cambodia’s economy has grown impressively at around 5 per cent per year. That helps to explain why it has now graduated from the list of the world’s least-developing countries. The Cambodian leaders believe that more equitable development within Asean will strengthen its unity and prosperity. Truth be told, a development gap does not only exist between the old and new members but also among the former group. For instance, the per capita GDPs of Singapore and Brunei are many times higher than those of Indonesia or the Philippines.
Although Cambodia is the newest member of Asean – joining in 1999 – the country has enjoyed a special status within the group because of the nature of its political system and leadership – nobody can deny that it is the freest among the new Asean members. This unique position allows the once war-torn nation to play multiple roles in the regional and international arenas.
Just take a look at present-day Cambodia and its cosmopolitan capital city, with its heavy presence of foreign investors and thriving business community. Cambodia, the UN and other international organisations have been working closely together to build up this nation since the Paris Peace Agreement in 1991. Indeed, its international profile has been the envy of Asean members. For instance, it is the only Asean member that has signed all important human-rights instruments. Next year, it will bid for a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council for the first time. At the end of December, Hun Sen delayed for another two years the adoption of a highly controversial law to regulate the operation of civil society organisations based in Cambodia. It was a wise move to mitigate any possible criticism in the future. The host is also contemplating holding a forum to allow interfacing between Asean leaders and representatives of non-governmental organisations ahead of the summit in early April.
The second challenge is to ensure that Asean will not become a pawn in the major powers’ competition. With pro-active multilateral diplomacy and a long tradition of strict neutrality since independence, Phnom Penh will not shy away from engaging the grouping’s dialogue partners, especially the US and China, to harness their economic power as well as manage their relations with Asean. The outcome of the East Asia Summit in Bali last November showed that Asean needs to stay ahead of the curve and further consolidate its common positions, which are extremely limited. As the ongoing Thai-Cambodian conflict and disputes in the South China Sea will continue to dominate the Asean agenda one way or another, Cambodia’s past diplomatic finesse and brinksmanship could come in handy in keeping Asean together.
Hun Sen and Foreign Minister Hor Namhong are considered highly seasoned diplomats, each with three decades of experience, who understand the regional pulse like the backs of their hands. The two want to see Asean play a mediating role in the six-party talks aimed at resolving problems relating to North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme since all concerned countries are members of the Asean Regional Forum. In the past, Asean tried to play such role but was not successful. At the Bali summit, South and North Korean foreign ministers met and agreed on the resumption of six-party talks. With the new leadership in North Korea, the Asean chair wants to explore this prospect again. Phnom Penh has longstanding and good relations with Pyongyang. Former North Korean leader Kim Il-sung built a residence for retired Cambodian King Sihanouk to live in during his exile. His son, King Norodom Sihamoni, has a contingent of security guards trained by North Korea.
As the Asean chair, Cambodia hopes to get all five members of the so-called “nuclear club” – the US, China, Russia, the UK and France – to sign the protocol of the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone this year. Asean wants a commitment that the five would not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against the group’s members. China was the first nuclear power to express interest in signing the protocol in 2005. But Asean would prefer all five to sign at the same time.
Another important mission is to encourage China and Asean to conclude a binding code of conduct in the South China Sea as soon as possible. Senior Asean officials met and discussed the terms of reference last year among themselves, ignoring China’s request to sit in on the meeting. Last week, senior officials from China and Asean held discussions in Taiyuan, Shanxi province, after months of delay, to exchange views on how to proceed with the proposed joint projects stated in the Declaration of the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. At the meeting, Beijing was more conciliatory, while the Asean claimants, especially the Philippines, played tough.
The third area of importance regards the Lower Mekong Initiative (LMI). Cambodia would certainly like to promote multifaceted cooperation within this framework. That would also mean boosting its ties with the US. During the past three years, the countries have ramped up their relations, including the security dimension. Since there are many ongoing hydroelectric projects along the Mekong River, cooperation concerning water management and conservation as well as better governance will be highlighted. The degree to which the lower riparian countries (Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam) can cooperate with the US will impact on the upper riparian countries in the long haul. Last November, the US invited Burma to join the LMI as part of the US-Burma normalisation process.
In the final analysis, the current chair must do its utmost to convince the leaders of non-Asean countries that their participation in all Asean-led meetings or summits are important and beneficial to all. Uncertainties abound at this juncture on whether the invited leaders would be able to make their way to Phnom Penh. For instance, despite Washington’s strong commitment to Asean and the East Asia Summit, it is not clear who will represent the US at the upcoming EAS summit later this year. Similar anxieties also persist in the cases of China and Russia, which will pick new leaders.
Can Cambodia build on the success of the Indonesian chair in raising the profile of Asean and consolidating Asean in the global community? It will not be long until we find out.