Thailand’s exports are expected to grow by 4 per cent year on year in 2017, higher than the central bank’s forecast of 2.2 per cent, according to Kim Eng Securities.
"We believe the key macro theme this year is that a synchronised global recovery appears to be underway and Asia has seen a robust recovery in exports. Agricultural exports have recovered and global oil prices are off their low base,” Kim Eng Securities said.
“We highlight that shrimp exports have recovered. That was after a fall due to flooding temporarily lowering production, and allegations of shrimps from Thailand being contaminated by antibiotics, which were investigated by the US,” said Tim Lelahaphan, Thailand economist at Kim Eng.
“In addition, Thai poultry exports may benefit due to many countries’ restrictions on US’ poultry exports after an outbreak of bird flu and the fallout from Brazil’s meat scandal,” he said. “According to our discussion with a company, global chicken consumption will not be disrupted. And based on the experience during China’s food safety scandal, the current restrictions on poultry exports from some countries could last for at least six months,” Tim added.
“Until the event reverses, and depending on Thailand’s capability to supply the markets, the additional export volumes together with the expected 10-per-cent price increase should benefit Thailand’s agricultural sector and exports. Chicken exports account for 1 per cent of Thailand’s total exports,” Tim said.