STRONG BAHT

PM Abhisit warns baht may rise even further


Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva hinted that the baht could strengthen even further after rising to Bt30.84 per dollar yesterday, breaking a 13-year record.

The baht's rapid appreciation prompted the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce economic forecasting centre to caution that the country could lose an estimated Bt100 billion in export and tourism revenues.

Opposition MP Suraphong Tovichakchaikul, chairman of the House committee on finance, money, banking and financial institutions, urged the government to intervene.

If the baht rose to 29 to the dollar, exports in the fourth quarter of this year would be badly hit, he said.

Kasikorn Bank yesterday issued a revised forecast that the baht would likely appreciate to 30.2 per dollar by year-end and to 29.5 per dollar next year.

Kiat Sithi-amorn, president of the Office of Thai Trade Representatives, said exporters should adjust themselves to the prevailing exchange rate, rather than expecting the baht to stay weak all the time.

"The private sector has to adapt and boost competitiveness," he said, citing the example of Singapore whose currency had appreciated over the past decade from Bt10 per Singapore dollar to the present Bt24 per dollar.

However, Samphun Eamrungroj, the acting president of Export-Import Bank, said many clients have been facing losses due to the baht's rapid rise.

"Fortunately, exporters have made profits in the first half of this year, so they should still be alright considering the whole-year operation, even though they would likely suffer losses in the second half."

"The outlook is worrisome for next year if the baht continues its up-trend," said Samphun, adding that most Thai exporters had already slowed taking new foreign orders due to the baht's rise.

Thiti Tantikulanan, head of capital markets at Kasikornbank, said the baht had risen in line with other regional units, up 7 per cent this year so far, while the Malaysian ringgit is up 9 per cent and currencies in Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore have seen a 4.5 per cent increase.

Thiti said around $2.5 billion had flooded into Thai markets, while a positive balance in trade driven by strong exports and a weaker dollar - as the US recovery appears to falter - had also helped boost the currency.

Federation of Thai Industries chairman Payungsak Chartsuthipol expressed concern about the impact on Thai exporters if the currency accelerates past regional neighbours, according to an AFP report.


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