SIDELINES

Reconciliation is nice to talk about, but hard to achieve


Amid wild rumours about possible attempts on the lives of key political and military figures, grenade attacks on vital installations and government offices, and another round of red-shirt activities, suddenly there is talk about reconciliation among the parties to the political conflict.

Nobody knows exactly which side has proposed reconciliation, for what purpose and to what end. There has been a guarded and lukewarm response from the parties concerned, possibly worrying that they might lose leverage and positioning if they seem too enthusiastic.

Even those with the highest degree of optimism have been quick to cast doubt that reconciliation will ever materialise, simply because it would require long negotiation and eventual consent from many groups.

First of all, the proposed reconciliation, no matter who initially made the offer, is between arch rivals Pheu Thai and the Democrats. If the two agree to sit down after all basic rules are set, there is the question of whether the coalition parties should also be asked to join.

The key coalition partner, Bhum Jai Thai, led de facto by Newin Chidchob, is despised by Pheu Thai, which is losing a number of MPs to the former's financial seduction, widely estimated at Bt80 million per pair. This is not a deal to buy livestock. It's an offer for MPs to switch camp. At present Bhum Jai Thai is cash rich, and a tempting offer of Bt40 million is difficult to turn down for MPs.

Prime Minister Abhisit has set a precondition that for any reconciliation talks to take place, Pheu Thai must display true intent and sincerity, and cease and desist from supporting subversive movements by the red shirts. Other Democrats simply believe that the goal is beyond reach. This condition is conceivably impossible for the red shirts to comply with because they can argue that they have nothing to do with the party, although the public knows that they are one and the same, with the leash held by Thaksin Shinawatra.

Other coalition partners are mercurial, always ready to join the winner in forming a government. They pursue no noble principles of any kind. They are true believers in the axiom that there is no honesty among thieves.

If Pheu Thai and the Democrats agree to talk, there is the question of who has real power in representing Pheu Thai. Ultimately, from their point of view, everything has to involve Thaksin, who must be the centre of all bargaining. Tentatively, General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh and Pheu Thai's powerless leader Yongyuth Vichaidit - neither are MPs - should head the negotiations.

Then there is another question of whether the red-shirt elements should participate in talks, because there are many groups now forming as allies just to convince Thaksin to dole out his money for expenses and self-enrichment.

Pheu Thai negotiators would have to be constantly in contact with Thaksin, in the way that red-shirt leaders had negotiations with Prime Minister Abhisit's team before the mayhem in May. This would be frustrating because conditions would change in order to get Thaksin's final approval.

Of course, Thaksin's chief demand is total amnesty on his jail term and pending criminal proceedings, and that he can come back to Thailand at any time. The Democrats cannot agree to this demand, because crimes have been committed and the due process of law must be fulfilled.

If the Democrats show even the slightest inclination to consider this point, there will be hell to play due to public outrage. The yellow shirts and those who remember what Thaksin and his cronies have done to this country will never accept such a compromise.

What's more, the red shirts will continue their effort to oust the government even while negotiations go on, claiming that they have no part in the reconciliation process. This stand will get Thaksin's blessing because double-talk and underhanded negotiations serve as a key strategy.

Last week, the red shirts warmed up with a rally in Pattaya. They intend to make another move on September 17, with a caravan from Bangkok to Chiang Mai. Along the way, they want to place flowers in front of prisons, demanding the release of all "political prisoners".

What they demand is impossible to comply with. There are no political prisoners. The red shirts in detention are accused terrorists with a wide range of other serious charges hanging over them. The first show of sincerity will thus be for Pheu Thai to help stop any violent red-shirt campaigns.

So for now, with the complications and complexities based on the self-serving interests of all parties to the conflict, let's assume that the talk of reconciliation is just the pursuit of an impossible goal.


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