The Democrats enjoyed a moment of triumph in the city elections last weekend, comfortably beating the opposition Pheu Thai Party and proving that the New Politics Party is still far from posing any threat at all. With regained confidence and popularity in the capital, the Democrats might now want to opt for a more serious test by calling a general election before their term of office expires at the end of next year.
Most disappointing however was the low voter turnout, at only 41 per cent. This reflects a distinct lack of interest for exercising political rights. Of course, this was only a local election, and we will surely hear louder complaints on national issues.
The low voter turnout is typical for Bangkok. The so-called silent majority never shows itself, no matter what the crisis, until personal interests are affected. This so-called majority in the city remain silent, never caring to vote, claiming a dislike of politics, saying that those offering themselves for public service are not worth wasting time for at the polling booths.
The silence has been interpreted as uncaring disinterest in public activities. Even worse is that this silent majority just does not care what political party commands power and what it intends to do with the country. Those who stay silent are even dismissive of the massive corruption all around them.
The inertia of the silent majority during the red-shirt mayhem from March to May was significant. Most people just did not know how they should react to the violence, firefights and burning of shopping malls and public offices.
The city elections did not benefit from active publicity, and thus many people declined to exercise their voting right. The Democrats and Pheu Thai knew that they had their base of followers, but wider loyalty is not guaranteed. It shifts with changing sentiment and circumstances.
Still, the pattern of votes for both parties did not show much variation. A Pheu Thai deputy leader conceded defeat and explained that the low number of seats won by his party showed that Bangkok residents were disdainful toward the red shirts. Yet, winning one third of the assembly seats was not a bad result.
For the New Politics Party, the total defeat must have been very hard to swallow. All along, it had been the party's impression that city people were mostly yellow-shirt sympathisers, even if they were not active yellow shirts themselves.
Before polling day, there was apprehension among anti-red shirt voters that if they voted for New Politics the results would go against the Democrats, thus enabling Pheu Thai to win with a decisive margin. It could have been due to this that New Politics came a distant third in most areas, with voters deciding to go for the Democrats and not split the anti-red shirt vote. New Politics managed to take second spot in a few areas, but it was far from a meaningful challenge to the Democrats. Battered and bruised, it will take time for New Politics to overcome its grief.
With a resounding victory, does this mean that the Democrats are ready for a general election? As the situation stands, they need more time to accumulate a war chest, possibly from dubious sources and undue gain. We all know what this means … and we should not rule out kickbacks from major projects.
What we can expect to see now is a gradual increase in pressure from the red shirts and the Democrats' coalition partners. The latter want to amass as much money as possible through risky ventures and pet projects.
The Democrats intend to solidify their position, possibly by maintaining the current coalition structure through more House members defecting from Pheu Thai to cash-loaded Bhumi Jai Thai, which controls projects with huge funds.
Chief antagonist Thaksin Shinawatra has been lying low for nearly two months, presumably hatching a new plot to oust the Abhisit government. Peace is not yet fully restored, and further violence remains a possibility. A blast at the city duty-free complex raised new doubts whether any durable peace is possible.
The reshuffle of top military brass, police officers and civil servants will be completed soon. This will give an indication of whether the Democrats can last, despite the apparent strong support outside Parliament.