Prayuth set to take reins

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva confirmed yesterday that he had submitted this year's military reshuffle for royal approval - foiling any attempts to politicise the issue, although the swiftness of the annual promotions suggests all is not well among the top brass.

Pending the royal command on military appointments, General Prayuth Chan-ocha is poised to become the new Army commander-in-chief, succeeding General Anupong Paochinda, who will retire on September 30. Prayuth is likely to have the top post for four years.

The promotions appear to be in line with proper criteria like seniority, chain of command and job qualifications. Officers slated for higher jobs have done well in their military service, hence deserving just rewards.

But the plum positions look to have gone to those in charge of quelling red-shirt protests and those linked to the alleged Anupong-Prayuth clique, known as the "Eastern Tigers".

Although the military line-up indicates consolidation, continuity, stability and unity in the armed forces, the "Eastern Tigers" domination has left a large number of capable officers on the sidelines, not to mention the political impact of a strong, dominant Army against a backdrop of high uncertainties in parliamentary politics.

Outgoing Army chief Anupong rigorously dismissed claims that an "Eastern Tigers" group even exists, saying it was a figment of imagination fanned by media professionals.

Anupong said he did not condone any military clique to dominate the Army.

"In three years at my job, I did not build up a clique and stories related to the so-called Eastern Tigers have been written up in the press but there is no such group in existence," he said.

Based on the current line of military succession, Prayuth would be likely to hand the Army torch - in 2014 - to Lt Gen Kanit Sapitak, who is currently commander of the First Army Region and slated for elevation to the rank of five-star general in the role of assistant Army chief.

Lt Gen Daopong Rattanasuwan is slated for promotion to the position of Army chief of staff. He is reportedly being groomed for the position of Supreme Commander in the next few years.

Given that military succession appears to be fixed for the next four to eight years, this raises questions about the chance for career growth for officers not seen as favourites by their commanders.

The Army is well consolidated, but its chain of command is in the hands of those elevated by for their record in cracking down on the red shirts. A shift in the political wind could bring about tension between pro-red leaders and the military top brass.

Even under the existing power structure, the opposition is likely to try to gain political mileage by questioning Prayuth's leadership over his involvement in the April 10 clashes near Rajdamnoen Avenue.

Prayuth was the commander in charge of security forces trying to rein in the reds in an operation the opposition said was brutal and excessive. Some 25 people were killed - both troops and protesters, plus about 860 injured.

If Pheu Thai Party manages to grab power, Prayuth may find himself in the hot seat. Whether or not Daopong, seen by some as a possIble patch-up to reconcIle the Army and the red shIrts, can keep such tensIon from boIlIng over remaIns to be seen.

In the Defence Ministry, General Kittipong Ketkowit is slated to move from deputy supreme commander to Defence permanent secretary. He will succeed General Apichart Penkitti, who is due for mandatory retirement in September.

Apichart's deputies have been bypassed for promotion because Kittipong is expected to work in the same team as Supreme Commander General Songkitti Chakkabatr and incoming Army chief Prayuth.

General Pirun Paewpholsong is due to succeed Kittipong at the Supreme Command. Pirun will vacate his position as Army chief-of-staff for one of his deputies, Lt General Daopong, who is seen as one of the Army's rising stars.

In the Army, Prayuth will have General Theerawat Boonyapradab as his deputy and General Wich Thephasdin na Ayutthaya as chief adviser.

Three commanders from three Army Regions are up for promotion. Kanit, of the First Army, and Lt General Pichet Wisaijorn, of the Second Army, will become Prayuth's assistants. And Lt General Thanongsak Apirakyothin of the Third Army is slated to be a special adviser to Prayuth.

Major General Udomdet Sitabutr is tipped for elevation to the rank of Lt General and succeed Kanit at the First Army, while Major General Varit Rojanapakdi, who sustained knee injuries from an M-79 attack in the April 10 anti-riot operation, will be promoted from Second Infantry Division commander to become deputy commander of the First Army.

Lt General Thawatchai Samutsakhon, Lt General Wannawit Wongwait and Maj General Akanit Muensawat are poised to be commanders of the Second, Third, and Fourth Army Regions respectively.

Army spokesman Colonel Sansern Kaewkamnerd is not up for promotion this time round, despite the popularity of his daily announcements to counter the red-shirt rally.

Both Navy chief Admiral Kamthorn Phumhiran and Air Force head Air Chief Marshal Itthiporn Suphawong will carry in their posts, which means promotions in these corps are relatively low-key.

Vice Admiral Yuthana Fakpholngarm and Vice Admiral Damrongsak Haocharoen are slated for elevation to the rank of admiral, to become the deputy Navy chief and Navy chief-of-staff respectively.

Air Chief Marshal Dilok Songkalayanamitr is poised to become deputy chief of the Air Force, while Air Chief Marshal Boonyarit Kerdsuk and Air Chief Marshal Srichao Chanruang will both become assistant heads of the Air Force.