Flurry of deals to secure support for Budget Bill

The Budget bill is a financial bill and governments that fail to pass such crucial legislation are expected to resign and show responsibility. This is not stated in law, but is political etiquette.

Given the importance of the bill, the government faces a key test as they have around 40 MP seats more than the opposition parties. The Budget bill needs the support of at least half of all MPs present in the House when the vote is taken.

Currently, there are some 474 MPs in total. But 24 government MPs are in the Cabinet and will not vote on the bill due to a resolution by the government whip. According to the Constitution, ministers are prohibited from voting in Parlia-ment on matters in which they are involved.

Although the Council of State has suggested the 24 ministers can vote on the Budget bill the government whip doesn't want to risk doing this. They are "barred" from voting because of fears that the bill, which is due to take effect on October 1, may be delayed if some groups seek a ruling from the Constitution Court to legally decide if ministers violated the Constitution by voting.

Excluding the 24 ministers, the coalition has only 237 MPs who can vote to support the bill, which is one vote less than half of the total number of MPs. And, while it's unlikely that all members will attend the House session to vote on the bill, the ruling party does not want to take any risks.

Since the Cabinet reshuffle in June, the government's majority in the House has weakened after 18 MPs were expelled from the Puea Pandin Party in the coalition. However, there was a report that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva asked Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanich to get the support of key men from of excluded Puea Pandin group - Pinij Jarusombat, Preecha Laohapongchana and Pairoj Suwanchawee - to have get the 18 expelled MPs to vote in support of the Budget bill.

In the meantime, the premier and his deputy Suthep Thaugsuban also talked to Bhum Jai Thai Party's de facto leader Newin Chidchob to make sure they will get full support for the Budget bill vote.

There has been claims that the government leader and his deputy were confident that they have the numbers to get the bill passed, and that they spoke in the same way that the Budget bill would finally win approval in Parliament. However, the opposition Pheu Thai Party has leaked reports that the government paid MPs up to eight-figure sums to secure support for the bill.

Meanwhile, the government is said to have realised it was unstable, or vulnerable at this vote, so they allegedly allocated funds to some Pheu Thai MPs on ad-hoc committees assessing the Budget bill in order to get them to switch sides in the next election.

Apart from trying to keep coalition partners together to vote for the Budget bill, they are also planning their strategy for the next general election.

Three key men at Puea Pandin reportedly wanted to join hands to found a new political party as an alternative for MPs in the Northeast who are bored with Pheu Thai, as they have little funds and don't want to join Newin Chidchob's Bhum Jai Thai.

But Bhum Jai Thai has showed some power to attract MPs from other parties to join them. Yesterday they introduced six MPs who have defected from other parties. The MPs still represent their parties, but the news forced the parties to find a way to ditch them. To keep their MP status, the expelled MPs will have to seek a ruling from the Constitution Court to see if they can move to Bhum Jai Thai.

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Total number of MPs in the House: 474 seats

Coalition parties: 261 seats

Democrats: 171

Bhum Jai Thai: 32

Chat Thai Pattana: 25

Ruam Chat Pattana: 9

Social Action: 5

Matubhum: 3

Puea Pandin: 14, (18 expelled)

Pracharaj: 2

Opposition parties: 195 seats

Pheu Thai: 189

Pracharaj: 6