What will happen if the country's oldest political party, the Democrat, is broken up by court order? Here are a few scenarios as to what we can expect
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva denied yesterday the Democrat Party was mapping out long-term plans to cope with its possible dissolution.
With 9,000 pages against his party from the prosecutors arriving at the Constitution Court, though, his poker face could not dismiss the harsh political realities that were hitting home hard: the Democrats are now officially heading into a dark storm.
The immediate question is whether members of Thailand's oldest political party will be able to stay together if it is disbanded for allegedly abusing state subsidy, or for receiving illegal donations, or both. Party insiders have confirmed that the prospect of dissolution has created potentially serious rifts, but they believed the still pervasive clout of former party leader and ex-prime minister Chuan Leekpai would in the end manage to hold almost everyone together.
That leaves a far more complicated question of what to do if a guilty verdict comes. The answer depends on many factors, including when the ruling is handed down, how hard the punishment is, and whether an acting prime minister can dissolve the House of Representatives.
The worst-case scenario has a guilty verdict being delivered after the prime minister has dissolved the House (as part of his roadmap promise) and the ruling party has registered its election candidates. This would wipe out the Democrats from that election and the party, for the first time, would have no representation in Parliament.
Few believe the Constitution Court would be cruel enough to wait until the House is dissolved and election candidacy registered to hand down a party dissolution verdict. However, the possibility of annihilation is worrying some Democrats anyway. Pre-empting this nightmare scenario calls for the Democrats to join a new party whenever the House is dissolved prior to a Constitution Court verdict.
Abhisit always insisted that he would not prematurely dissolve the House, although that was what every prime minister had said. And yesterday he tried to laugh off the significance of public prosecutors and the Election Commission ganging up against his party. He and Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban denied knowledge about the setting up of a "substitute" party called Thai Khemkhaeng (Strong Thai), rumoured to be earmarked as the Democrats' new home in case of a party dissolution verdict.
Abhisit will likely choose to wait for the court ruling. In case of a guilty verdict dissolving the party and banning executives, including himself, from politics for five years, he would pin his hopes on Democrat power-broker Suthep fighting off Pheu Thai's efforts to grab power. If only a few Democrats are banned from politics, Suthep's work should be easy. But if all of more than 40 Democrat executives, who are also MPs, are banned as called for by the prosecutors, Suthep will need to pull off a miracle to keep the coalition allies together and possibly bring in some Pheu Thai defectors to prevent a switch in power.
But what if Suthep is unable to hold on to the allies? Then the only way to prevent a shift of power is to call a new election. Thai politics will therefore experience another controversial scenario. As Abhisit will almost certainly be banned in the event of a guilty verdict, the whole Cabinet will lose its status along with him.
The Cabinet might be able to continue functioning in an "acting" status, pending parliamentary election of new prime minister, but is an "acting" prime minister in an "acting" Cabinet empowered to dissolve the House? This is an issue that has no precedent.
If it is constitutionally confirmed that an acting prime minister cannot dissolve the House, the Democrats will be pretty much at the mercy of their allies, especially if too many executives are banned in a guilty verdict.
A less-frightening scenario is for the verdict to come after the next election. In such an event, the party can avoid fielding liabilities (including Abhisit) in the poll and get everything ready for other MPs to move to a new party if necessary. It won't be too difficult, but even this scenario belied Abhisit's smile yesterday.