A victory in Washington

The Abhisit government looked quietly content yesterday, and that was just about all it could show. A US House of Representatives resolution that was overwhelmingly in favour of the Thai prime minister's reconciliation roadmap was a diplomatic victory against Thaksin Shinawatra, but an unrestrained demonstration of jubilation could come back to haunt the Thai leaders later.

The government need not look further than Noppadon Pattama to learn a lesson in how overconfidence could turn disastrous in international diplomacy.

Noppadon, a close aide of Thaksin, arrived in Washington a few days ago announcing his big lobbying ambitions and thus turned the Thai media's attention toward the upcoming resolution. If only he had known that the vote would be a staggering 411-4 in support of peaceful means to resolve the Thai conflict and, more significantly, Abhisit Vejjajiva's reconciliation plan.

The resolution unequivocally backs the roadmap, which the red shirts declined to accept before the stand-off with the Thai government turned bloody with murky violent incidents each side has blamed on the other. It was also a snub for Thaksin, who has always said he preferred direct "peace talks" with neutral foreign mediators to Abhisit's plan.

Round one in the diplomatic face-off, therefore, goes to the Thai government. As Noppadon and other Thaksin lobbyists headed off to their next destinations that reportedly include Europe, taking a foreign resolution seriously is not a wise strategy.

Abhisit, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban and some other government leaders cautiously welcomed the American politicians' move, but all stopped short of portraying it as a strong endorsement of the roadmap's legitimacy.

"It's always my belief that most foreign governments and organisations see the steps being taken by the government as a possible solution to the crisis," Abhisit said.

"In the case of certain organisations, we still have to keep on trying to make them understand. As for Thaksin and people working for him, they surely will also keep on trying and we will not try to stop them."

Having given Washington much importance, Noppadon and Thaksin must have found themselves tongue-tied. Thaksin, for instance, cannot say that the US "is not our father" as doing so would torpedo his own international campaign against the Thai government. The best he could do now is hope Europe would not be as accommodating towards the Bangkok administration.

The US resolution, whose first draft was believed to have been made before the Thai situation plunged into a bloodbath, was co-sponsored by 29 US congressmen. The four who voted against it were Ron Paul (Texas, Republican), Wally Herger (California, Republican), Timothy Johnson (Illinois, Republican) and Walt Minnick (Idaho, Democrat).

The wordings cherished Thai-US ties and valued the Kingdom's rich diversity, culture and traditions. Concern was expressed that the crisis had been threatening the well-being of all Thais, socially and economically. It was described as a merely symbolic, non-binding resolution, but thanks to Noppadon, the resolution is anything but symbolic as far as Thaksin's showdown with the Thai government goes.

Kiat Sitthiamorn, the PM's special envoy to the US, said the US resolution reflects America's "deep understanding" of the Thai political situation.

"I had the privilege to meet prominent senators and congressmen as well as senior State Department officials to explain the factual situation in Thailand during my recent trip," he said.

"Essentially, the US resolution endorses the Thai government's reconciliation plan and urged every party concerned to resolve the political conflict in a peaceful and democratic way."

Kiat said US authorities were well aware of controversial incidents like the existence of armed elements during the red shirts' protests. He also met representatives of Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Washington Post, AP and AFP during his visit, which took place before Noppadon landed in Washington to lobby on Thaksin's behalf.

The diplomatic war has just begun. With the unexpected development from Capitol Hill, we are likely to see both rival camps, Noppadon in particular, move more cautiously in the future.