Campaigning for the Bangkok by-election has started, giving the Democrats and the opposition a chance to not just battle it out for a House seat for Constituency 6, but to also gauge the sentiment of voters.
With emotions running high in the aftermath of the turmoil, the race will likely see several twists and turns before votes are cast on July 25.
The race would also offer the Democrats and Pheu Thai Party a platform to free themselves from any accountability for the bloodshed.
Though the actual campaigning by Democrat Panich Vikitsreth and Pheu Thai's Kokaew Pikulthong are expected to be low-key, the outcome will likely be decided by the strength of either party's local canvassers rather than the campaign message, the popularity or individual strengths of the rival candidates.
Even though Panich appears to have a strong lead because his rival Kokaew is campaigning from his remand cell, the race might still turn out to be a close call.
The Democrats and the main opposition party both claim the constituency is their stronghold, because both parties have taken turns in winning that seat in past elections.
Yet, the voting outcome will depend more on the ability of the canvassers instead of the rivalling candidates.
The Democrats picked Panich not because he is in contact with the constituents - which he isn't - but due to his strong background in banking and financing.
Panich, like Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij, is a young professional - the best man to spread the "advancing forward" slogan.
The Democrats want Panich to carry their message of hope to voters nationwide. By choosing him, the main coalition party is saying that it is ready to steer the country to a brighter future and that it has a capable person to do the job. Besides, the Democrats also wish to imply that voting for the main opposition party would mean dwelling on the past and bringing back the bitterness of the violence.
Despite being involved in leading the red-shirt movement, Kokaew is a technocrat with an engineering and management background and not a hardcore agitator linked to the violence.
In naming him as its candidate, the main opposition party is distancing itself from the bloodshed, yet at the same time reaffirming its support for the non-violent red shirts.
The opposition lawmakers have made it clear that justice on politically motivated cases should be served before any fences can be mended.
By endorsing Kokaew, the opposition has made a symbolic gesture of solidarity with the reds in defiance of the coalition alliance and the state.
The other three candidates from smaller parties in the race are seen more as props rather than serious contenders. Parties, after all, have to stay active in order to qualify for state funding.
However, it is noteworthy that the New Aspiration Party has named Anusorn Som-on as its candidate.
The NAP is seen as being close to Pheu Thai chairman Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, triggering speculation about a contingency plan to have a spare candidate should any "accident" take place and force Kokaew out of the race.
The prospects for Pheu Thai victory are slim, though it could deny a big margin of the winning votes to the Democrats.
Yet, regardless of the voting outcome, this by-election would be the first litmus test on how the coalition and the opposition would wrestle for power at the next general election.
