Has the government delivered a major blow to the red-shirt movement through financial information leaks?
Those who are inclined to believe so may need to consider the fact that this on-going political showdown has been marked by damaging allegations with little evidence to prove them.
The latest development continues to be part of the information warfare, which started with the red shirts themselves accusing Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva of plotting a violent crackdown on protesters. A voice clip was used repeatedly at the rally site featuring Abhisit speaking of details of his malicious plan, although any neutral listener could easily see that it was doctored. Ever since then a mutual smear campaign has escalated.
Ever since, the government has hit back equally hard. Having accused the protesters of being infiltrated by terrorists, the government initially named around 170 individuals and firms as potential sponsors of terrorism. Then about half of that were abruptly dropped from the blacklist.
The shrinking of the blacklist was almost as interesting as the stunning terrorism charges themselves. If the conspicuous dropping of the charges had happened elsewhere, the government could have been hit with massive lawsuits from the cleared suspects. But since it's Thailand, sceptics are asking if secret deals have been struck under the table.
The latest leaks sounded primarily shocking. Thaksin Shinawatra's two children - Panthongtae and Pinthongta - allegedly withdrew Bt4 billion and Bt6 billion respectively during the political turbulence. It was not clear if it was the money "unfrozen" following the recent Supreme Court ruling or Panthongtae and Pinthongta had the cash from the very beginning. Whatever the origin of the money, how the Shinawatra siblings spent it would be more important as far as the public are concerned.
Army chief Anupong Paochinda is expected to sign an order in the next two days to kick-start interrogation of the 86 individuals and firms remaining on the blacklist. It is doubtful Panthongtae and Pinthongta will be answering the questions on their own, not least because there was nothing on public records about any mega-investment project that concerned the two.
While the cash withdrawals involving the two were massive, more embarrassing have been the leaked figures concerning what was put in the accounts of red leaders when their fight for the country's poor was at its height.
Veera Musigapong allegedly had Bt10.5 million put into his account since April last year, Kwanchai Praipana had Bt14 million in his account, while Suporn Attawong had Bt9 million. weng Tojirakarn's account had Bt1.5 million deposited, whereas Nisit Sinthuprai (considered a second-generation red leader) had Bt5 million in his account.
As of now, it seems only a minor political blow at best. Red leaders having millions in their accounts would not change any sentiment domestically. Sympathi-sers of the red-shirt movement would never mind that, otherwise they would have questioned the Thaksin connection in the first place. Some international watchers may be surprised to know that most red leaders are now richer than average Thais, but perceptions can only change if the government can prove the money came through illegitimate means.
So far, the government has only been able to sow seed of doubts in the so-called "struggle" of Thailand's poor against the country's elites. The next steps will require both political and legal transparency. The post-bloodbath battleline has been drawn now. One side will try to portray the fight as the rural poor against the rich elite, while the other is seeking to prove that big money, which has wrecked Thailand is trying to find its way back to power using the underprivileged as a shield.
No matter which side is right, the showdown is certainly not as simple as it first appeared to be.