Can we ignore rumours of a nuclear Burma?

On the face of it, it is absurd to assert that a country like Burma could go nuclear in the next ten or twenty years. Such an impoverished nation, and a signatory to the Southeast Asian Nuclear Weapons Free Zone in 1995, could not and would not do that. So, the conventional argument goes. This must be a plot cooked up by international conspirators to further portray Burma in a bad light and destroy the country's effort to become a full democracy. After all, the brutal military regime is telling anyone who will listen that the country will become normal after its scheduled election later this year - although the date of the poll still remains a secret.

Preoccupation with recent events in Thailand have given the Burmese junta leaders a great deal of space to manoeuvre and plan their political future, and show the success of their seven-point "roadmap" for "democracy".

The same innocent observation was also made in the cases of North Korea and Iran, both of which have become far more advanced in their long-standing nuclear ambitions. For decades, nobody questioned their motives, until it was too late. Pyongyang has now become the centre of attraction, despite its isolation. The country is unpredictable, not to mention aggressive. The recent sinking of a South Korean ship, allegedly by a North Korean submarine, has turned the security and stability of the Korean Peninsula upside-down. As a result, worldwide sympathy and support for South Korea has been increasing. At the same time, North Korea does not seem to budge in the face of international pressure.

But what is both new and worrisome is the suspected mutual cooperation between North Korea and Burma on nuclear technology. The two countries were once at loggerheads, after half the South Korean cabinet was killed in a bomb blast in Rangoon in 1983. The attack was allegedly carried out by North Korean agents. Now, it seems, the two countries have kissed and made up.

Why? Both countries are "rogue states" that have been isolated internationally. They are both subject to economic sanctions and thus have been drawn to each other out of desperation - the down-side of isolation - and a sense of survival.

The extent of North Korea's alleged nuclear assistance has yet to be assessed by international experts. Suffice to say at this point, Pyongyang may have given the Rangoon junta enough knowledge and components to proceed confidently with its future nuclear ambition. The latest report by the Norway-based Democratic Voice of Burma, using material from defectors from the Burmese army, and piles of documents and photographs, have provided what appear to be credible grounds for suspicion. But certainly, more evidence will be needed for concerted international action to ensure that Burma does not embark on this dangerous path.

Thailand's security apparatus, especially the National Security Council, is staying mute over these latest developments.

Thai intelligence and security officials - like their counterparts in many countries - continue to play down the Burmese junta's nuclear ambition and the related reports. Perhaps they are just too terrified at the thought of this possibility. They still think Burma is too poor and too backward to develop such technology.

What they may not be taking into account is that this kind of technology can be bought at the right price. Thailand is currently paying around US$880 million per year for Burmese natural gas. Thanks to Thai naivety and the generosity and dependency syndrome of decision-makers in the energy sector, Burma has excess cash to pay for North Korea's nuclear technology.

It may seem like an impossible scenario, but one day, when the country faces the threat of nuclear annihilation by its unpredictable neighbour, they will have to answer to their families and the country why such a monstrous scheme was allowed to be hatched under their noses.

Oh, mai pen rai, we say. They don't have the capability to produce nuclear weapons.