Abhisit under pressure to act against coalition partner over no-confidence vote rebellion, mulls three options
The Puea Pandin Party's Cabinet portfolios are at stake as the ruling Democrat Party ponders its options today to prevent the coalition partner's mini rebellion at the end of the censure debate from further destabilising the government.
Sources said Democrat leaders did not want to act tough against Puea Pandin, considered a good counter-balance to the ambitious and sometimes restless Bhum Jai Thai, but were being hard pressed to react to Puea Pandin's behaviour at the no-confidence vote.
Up to 16 Puea Pandin MPs voted or abstained against Bhum Jai Thai censure targets, forcing the latter party to demand a tough response from Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.
The ruling Democrats, whose own no-confidence targets virtually were not affected by the mini revolt, will hold board and party meetings today to consider whether or to what extent Puea Pandin should be penalised.
Puea Pandin presently holds the ICT and Industry ministry portfolios.
Abhisit will have to weigh the potential consequences of seizing both or one of the two portfolios from Puea Pandin in what would be a tough punishment. Such a measure will leave much, if not all, of Puea Pandin a dissident camp within the coalition.
With the Budget Bill the only parliamentary challenge left for this year, Abhisit could afford to have a group of rebels in the government in the next few months.
His other options, apart from direct punishment, range from dangling a carrot to, again, wielding a stick.
The "compromise" option is to try to keep both Bhum Jai Thai and Puea Pandin in the government. This is what Abhisit and Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban prefer as they do not want any changes in the government.
The ruling Democrat Party's first priority is to continue its roadmap for reconciliation. They do not want to see coalition disunity obstructing the work. The Democrats would desperately try to do everything to keep both Bhum Jai Thai and Puea Pandin in the government, perhaps through budget manipulation or reallocation of ministerial posts to pacify both sides.
Another option calls for dumping Puea Pandin's troublemakers from the coalition without replacing them.
This option will see more than 10 Surin MPs from the Kasem Rungthanakiat faction and Nakhon Ratchsima MPs from the Pairoj Suwanchawee faction, which controls the ICT minister's post, being kicked out of the government.
The Democrat-led government could survive without replacements, or at least it could scrape through the next parliamentary session which will be a legislative session - meaning the opposition won't be allowed to file a no-confidence motion.
As an alternative, to be on the safe side, the Democrats could still bring Pracharaj (eight MPs) and Matubhum (three MPs) from the opposition bloc to join the coalition.
This option would be taken up only if Bhum Jai Thai insisted it wanted Puea Pandin to be punished.
This option could also satisfy the rest of Puea Pandin MPs as it would not affect their ministerial quotas. If there is someone Puea Pandin MPs could blame that person might be party leader Charnchai Chairungrueng for failing to control his party members.
The last option, to be taken up if Bhum Jai Thai unequivocally wanted to burn the bridges with Puea Pandin, would involve Abhisit kicking the latter out of the government. Puea Pandin (32 MPs) can be replaced by Pracharaj (eight MPs) and Matubhum (three MPs) and possibly some Puea Thai MPs planning to defect to any of the coalition parties.
This option is obviously least preferable for the ruling Democrats as it can hurt the government's numerical stability.
The government now has 275 seats. In the case of any untoward development, the government could collapse before the end of its term.