The reds are winning the propaganda war

CNN, the BBC, the New York Times and most other international media look upon the red movement as an attempt by the poor to make their voice heard while the Bangkok elite remain so arrogant with their wealth. Another favourite red theme is that Thaksin Shinawatra might be corrupt or bad, but at least he did something for the poor, while the Bangkok elite have been doing everything to enrich themselves.

If this is not enough, then Abhisit is "not democratically elected" since his government was installed by the military. The reds' history is short, and the entire political mess is due to the ammart (elite) seizure of power via the 2006 military coup. We can only correct the political mistakes by reverting to the 1997 Constitution and provide a blanket amnesty to all banned politicians. Then and only then Thailand will become a democratic country again and the rural poor and urban poor will regain their dignity because their voice has been heard.

This red message has been played out again and again. And the Abhisit government is losing out in this propaganda war, although the facts on the streets are a war of violence beyond any imagination.

More soldiers were sent to the Thai-Belgian Bridge on Rama IV Road in the Bon Kai district yesterday to reinforce troops already there.

Korbsak Sabhavasu, the deputy prime minister, was quite upset yesterday that Natthawut Saikua, a key red leader, had said that he was in contact with the reds first for a negotiation. In fact, Natthawut called him first. Both spent about five minutes over the phone. Natthawut called upon the military to stop killing civilians first before both sides could resume talks for peace. Then he would summon the reds, who were facing off with the military at the key checkpoints, and call off their constant clashes against the military.

But Korbsak said the military have not been using M79, grenades or RPGs at all. These weapons are being used by the radical reds who have infiltrated the more moderate reds who remain in the barricades.

There have been snipers lurking in many buildings around Bon Kai, on other stretches of Rama IV Road and also in Din Daeng and Rajaprarop Road. Over the past five days the overall death toll has reached 36, with injuries to 278 people. The street violence is being caused by the reds, while the military has been ordered to hold on to their positions at the checkpoints surrounding the red encampments. The military have not yet been ordered to move in to reclaim the Bangkok streets from the reds. They will shoot only to protect themselves. And they will aim at the armed reds.

"If the reds are sincere about the peace negotiations, they have to stop the violence first. Natthawut can go ahead to call back his people facing off with the military. But why doesn't he do that first? This also means that he has control over the reds there. Back off first. At least they can gather at Rajprasong alone. If they stop the violence, then we can start the process. The government is open to any negotiations," Korbsak told a local TV programme.

The military has been erecting checkpoints to surround the Rajprasong area and to prevent the reds being reinforced with weapons and to cut off their logistics and food supply. They will only shoot at designated zones to prevent the reds' mobility.

The violence on the streets is being carried out by three groups of people: Armed red supporters in black clothing, most of whom are well trained; the snipers lurking inside the tall buildings, who shoot targets haphazardly to create mayhem; and the urban poor in various communities of Bangkok who have taken to burning vehicles and throwing home-made bombs, firecrackers and the like. Officially, the reds will only admit that their urban fighters are using Home-made Bombs or firecrackers, and they will never admit to the existence of the snipers and the black-clad paramilitary personnel who mingle among the reds to avoid the TV cameras.

At the same time, the public is directed to look at the TV and the peaceful rally at Rajprasong intersection, where the red leaders are taking turns to speak to their dwindling audience. The image manipulation by the reds is artful. The more time they can buy, the more trouble the government will face because eventually Prime Minister Abhisit will be branded as a "100-body" prime minister. Then a toothpick will be good enough to cut him down.

Abhisit is no longer in charge. He no longer has access to the details of the military operation. After signing an order to authorise the use of force last Thursday, General Anupong Paochinda, the Army chief, has emerged as the most powerful person right now. He is now in charge of all the security aspects of the capital. But Anupong has also been a reluctant commander-in-chief, so we can't really see how he can bring the upheaval and the urban war under control.

The military was about to charge into the reds yesterday or in the early hours of this morning. Yet they hesitated again. Once they do that, they will be attacked from behind the lines by ex-rangers who have already been brought into the capital from upcountry. The reds' snipers have also been stationed in different positions to attack the government soldiers. This has forced the military to adopt extra caution and delay longer.

The battleground will be in Lumpini Park, where the black-clad armed rebels have kept their weapons stockpile. Their number is in the several hundreds. They will try to hold on to their positions while the ex-rangers from behind the lines and the snipers will help them from the outside. The Rajprasong rally will be making one cry: "The military is killing the people."

At the same time, they are crying out for the UN and the United States to intervene in the Thai crisis and to help their cause. This is a dilemma for the government soldiers because it is an almost impossible battle to win as it involves the lives of innocent Thais.

What is unfolding before your eyes is an armed rebellion, orchestrated in harmony with civic movements, the parliamentary channel, media outlets, the international community, the UN, the civil rights organisations, the NGOs, academics, and urban and local uprisings. The single aim is to topple the Abhisit government so that an interim government can be formed to serve the interests of the reds.

If unchecked, this armed rebellion could go all the way to change the Thai regime. The reds have to win this war because if they lose, they will be charged with treason, which is punishable by death.

My assessment is that the reds are not at any disadvantage against the government at this juncture. They, in fact, are holding the advantage because Abhisit is weak, his government is divided and the military is also divided.

The reds' military and political strategists are first rate. They run the show like an orchestra conductor. In the Bangkok Symphony Orchestra, each of the 100 members plays their own part. The players watch for the right tempo signals from the conductor, who waves his baton to keep perfect timing, dynamics, and to signal to the solo players or instrumental sections to jump in at the right timing.

Similarly, the reds are operating like an orchestra. The three hard-headed buddies run their likay (folk opera) show at the rally site. The poor protesters sleep on the pavements and join in the rally as the "voice of the poor" to arouse public opinion. The local and international media portray the rally as the poor versus the elite. The reds cyber warriors are everywhere on Twitter, in blogs, on the Internet and on Facebook. The human rights groups, local and international, come up with press releases from time to time to call upon the military to stop shooting at innocent people.

The academics and peace-loving opinion leaders call for negotiations when they don't know, or to pretend not to know, who the real bosses of the reds are and while it is clear that the reds do not want any negotiations because they want a radical political change. Their black-clad army will hit and run. The urban thugs will burn vehicles and throw petrol bombs. The snipers will shoot from the high buildings and never reveal their identities. The Puea Thai MPs want to show up at the rally site rather than in Parliament. The coalition partners are ready to join the reds. The police tomato will facilitate the reds' rally. The military watermelon will be ready to strike back in the event of the government soldiers' cracking down on the reds.

The reds have suffered a setback after the Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation's decision to freeze the bank accounts, financial transactions and assets of 106 companies and individuals associated with the red movement. Most of these people have links with Puea Thai. More people will see their bank accounts and assets being frozen today when the CRES makes an additional announcement. Without the money, the red movement will not proceed as smoothly. But the reds will always find a way to finance their operation. Money is not the problem.

We can see the whole picture now. Thailand's fate is hanging in the balance. If the situation is not handled carefully enough, we might become another Nepal.