PM remains on tight rope even after reds agree, defiantly, to his road map
The truth, this time, may not be in the details. So, if one looked for a "Yes" or "No" in the red-shirted leaders' emotional roller-coaster responses to Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's five-point road map to reconciliation, it could get pretty confusing. The real "reply" may have come at the very beginning from the first speaker, Veera Musigapong, who said the movement welcomed the government's offer.
The rest could be a charade, a departing act to convince protesters that no secret deal was being struck. During their much-anticipated announcement, key red leaders took turns to lambast Abhisit, listed cases of "injustice" and vowed never to trade personal legal escape with the ideology the red shirts had come to fight for. The drama, which at some point threatened to doom the road map, ended without the answer to the most-asked question: Are the protesters going home or not?"
The government believes it will be a day or two, or a few more days at the most. And when the red leaders were not on stage, where they had to display belligerence, they were smiling inside. Their key counter-demand, that the prime minister spell out when the House will be dissolved, gave them away, as his promise to hold a general election on November 14 already suggested that a House dissolution would happe some time between middle and late September.
The real bargaining, therefore, could be over the very thing that the red-shirted leaders declared they were not interested in. Charges of terrorism and attempts to overthrow the monarchy have been threatened by the government, and the red leaders yesterday challenged the administration to carry out the threats. They said they would never betray their people by accepting a deal that would save them from those charges in exchange for leaving April 10, the day many reds were killed, alone.
Naturally, any deal involving terrorism or sedition charges could never be mentioned on the red stage. But if there was anything unclear about the prime minister's road map announced on Monday, it was how the government woud pursue those charges, and whether they would cover any leader of the movement.
The red leaders in effect have thrown the ball back lamely at Abhisit, yet how he responds could be crucial. His offer was made when the movement was in disarray and needed a way out, but having made it, the offer has also become his major gamble.
In making the offer, Abhisit has alienated himself from a key, albeit reluctant ally - the yellow shirts. The movement, its extremists in particular, is having its idea reinforced that the Democrats were selfish and ungrateful. What the yellow shirts would like to see can be seen in their leader Sondhi Limthongkul's recent interview. Sondhi, virtually living in self-imposed overseas exile, preferred a clear-cut crackdown on anti-monarchy elements before reform can begin.
But reports that a "very important" person had mediated the peace plan were circulated in limited circles yesterday and lent weight to speculation that the process must now go ahead. There were voices of discontent from some coalition allies and even Abhisit's mentor Chuan Leekpai was not happy about the "House dissolution through intimidation", but the prime minister has nonetheless set the ball rolling.
A more cautious reaction came from the multicoloured movement, whose members apparently still do not know how to feel - relieved that disruptions of daily life would end soon, or bitter that the "No to House dissolution" campaign only served to delay the inevitable. But if this group primarily consists of Abhisit's admirers, it might be his only real friends at the moment.
Abhisit's tightrope act is far from over. Voices of dissent may get even louder from both sides. "You negotiated with terrorists," one camp will say. "You use terrorism to cover the government's own murderous acts," the other is already saying. The road map may be short, but this could be a very long year for the prime minister.