The red shirts should be worried even though they had been trying to cool their nerves by splashing water at each other during Songkran. Perhaps, their nerves were frayed because their rally site was relocated from Rajdamnoen (Royal procession) to Rajprasong (Royal wish).
The red shirts would never have abandoned their fortress at Phan Fa Bridge, which is conveniently located between Rajdamnoen Nok and Rajdamnoen Klang, if they had the slightest whiff of victory. After all, from Phan Fa one could literally cross the Gate to Heaven - the City of Angels - as one headed toward the inner part of old Bangkok. Throughout modern Thai history, all political battles and mass rallies have been played out and decided on Rajdamnoen Avenue. It is the ultimate political symbol.
After last Saturday's clashes between the red shirts and the government troops, the protesters appeared to be enjoying an upper hand. From peace-loving individuals, the red shirts suddenly transformed themselves into an armed rebellion against Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's government. The government security forces, trying to disperse the crowds at Rajdamnoen Avenue, were caught off guard by the sudden appearance of the Black Army of ex-military rangers and the People's Army of former communists, and ended up suffering a humiliating defeat. More than 20 people died in the clash and over 800 were injured.
The red shirts were obviously prepared for the April 10 skirmish. Earlier in the day, they had dismantled the closed-circuit cameras along Rajdamnoen Avenue, and had received intelligence reports about the government's plan.
It is becoming quite clear that the red shirts are pushing for political change - if not regime change - through violence. Abhisit has already realised that the red shirts' ultimate aim is an attempt against the country's most revered institution. He has called the clashes at Khok Wua intersection an act of terrorism.
It is ironic that the ex-rangers, previously trained by the CIA, and the former communists, once idealised by China, have come together in a joint mission to overthrow the government. They represent remnants of the Cold War, and in this case, oil and water are only mixing because they share an act of high treason.
In geographical terms, Rajdamnoen is a broad avenue that begins at the Royal Plaza, which is overlooked by the fifth king of the Chakri Dynasty. King Chulalongkorn, dressed in European military finery, is sitting regally on his horse seemingly to lead a procession of royal guards along the avenue. During King Chulalongkorn's reign, Thailand was unified and had grown from a feudal state to a more modern country.
From there, Rajdamnoen Avenue runs in a straight line before bending slightly to cross over the Phan Fa Bridge. Then Rajdamnoen Klang Road begins and takes you all the way to Democracy Monument and the Khok Wua intersection before reaching Rajdamnoen Nai Road at Sanam Luang.
Rajdamnoen is a historic avenue.
Now, however, the red shirts have set up camp at Rajprasong intersection - where Rajprasong and Rama 1 roads meet at the heart of Bangkok - an area sandwiched by high-end department stores and luxury hotels. The Royal Thai Police headquarters is also located nearby. Owners and operators of the department stores, shops and hotels are nervous. They have had to shut down and are collectively losing about Bt1 billion a day.
Though the mood at the Rajprasong red-shirt fortress has been festive, they still hope to hold the entire capital hostage. By doing this, any negotiations between the two sides would be out of the question. Thai Rath has recently reported that the government is planning to send in troops to quash the red shirts - apparently only the hard-core ones - either on April 19 or 21. The red shirts, meanwhile, are plotting to fight back by dressing in different colours.
In other words, the battle can start any time, as soon as the government can regroup itself.
The red shirts' struggle, complete with war weapons and not to mention propaganda, has changed the political equation. The red shirts say they are fighting against the ammart (elite), while the government has branded their hard-core members and masterminds as terrorists.
Though on the surface the red shirts appear to have won the first round last Saturday, they have actually lost out to the images captured on film, showing how they resorted to violence and launched a war of terror to take control over the government.
The movement, under the symbolic leadership of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, has adopted three strategies to finish off the Abhisit government and achieve the broader goal of mustering enough power to launch a revolution for regime change. They are creating the biggest crisis in almost 20 years by:
l Building up mass support, consisting largely of the grassroots poor, as well as former communists. The poor are fighting for social justice, while the ex-communists are rallying for regime change. Behind the scenes, the red shirts rely on support from the military, the police, the religious sector, the opposition Pheu Thai Party and Thaksin.
l Setting up troops for an armed struggle. The Black Army and the People's Army are well trained and equipped with war weapons as well as armament dating back to the Stone Age.
l Working through Parliamentary means. Pheu Thai Party is planning a no-confidence motion, which would make coalition partners vote Abhisit out as prime minister. Alternatively, a national government will be formed in the guise of national reconciliation, during which time a constitutional amendment will take place to do the laundry work for politicians. The hardcore red shirts will also get their way via an amendment that either reduces or does away with the role of the monarchy.
All of those involved in the red-shirts rally will have to settle for a share of the big pie if they want to emerge triumphant.
In other words, we might be witnessing a rebellion akin to the 1932 Revolution.
