It was a do-or-die. The red shirts, in seizing a major traffic and business centre of Bangkok yesterday, were hoping to ignite a political dynamite that could blow away the Abhisit government's legitimacy. But their leaders must also have been aware of the opposite scenario: the tens of thousands of protesters might be in effect telling Bangkokians to vote Democrat whenever the next election comes.
The movement won a battle, but probably at the price of the ultimate war.
The seizure of the Rajprasong intersection created a huge impact, but like a knife it cuts both ways.
The attempt to remind everyone about the occupation of the Suvarnabhumi Airport in November, 2008 was not that wise given two key differences between then and now - the Democrats were not the ones who took the airport, and, unlike the yellow shirts before them, the reds have nobody to fall back on. During the airport seizure, the military was looking the other way, but this time the Democrat government was mapping out responses from inside the 11th Infantry Regiment headquarters. At that time, the People Power Party was staring dissolution in the face, but this time the Democrats had no pending court case, at least not yet.
Pheu Thai MPs must be gritting their teeth. If yesterday saw a red-shirted victory, it was definitely not for them. Democrats and New Politics candidates will fight it out in the next election in Bangkok.
It was a peculiar situation as the red shirts' House dissolution demand was made with a Pheu Thai sweeping election triumph in mind. The red shirts, however, were throwing everything they got at the government, and election success in Bangkok may not matter that much.
The threat to "visit" Silom business district today confirmed that the protesters are on a kamikaze mission. But much will depend on what Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva decides or has decided to do. Calls for him to "enforce the law" became the loudest yesterday, and the louder they are, the more his leadership will be questioned.
If no action was taken last night, he will be under immense pressure from frustrated Bangkokians today. His security forces, at press time, seemed to decide against any harsh measure, probably a smart move as the numbers at the intersection were still large late last night, making peaceful dispersal impossible.
If anything, the political crisis yesterday kept its true, divisive nature. Red sympathisers saw the Rajprasong seizure as a great lesson for those who tolerated the Suvarnabhumi Airport occupation by the yellow shirts. Others asked if "two wrongs can't make a right", what "three wrongs can do to Thailand" then.
An ill-looking Thaksin emotionally thanked his supporters during a phone-in to the new rally site. His display of overwhelming gratefulness, however, could be a signal that he knew what lies ahead. The man himself had for long gone past the point of no-return, but an experienced politician like him must have known the ramifications awaiting his followers. If it had been hard for the red shirts to turn back, it became almost impossible yesterday.
