A glimmer of hope

It had to start somewhere. And yesterday it started, inside a conferrence room crammed with desks and microphones at King Prajadhipok's Institute. Admittedly, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, two other government representatives and three red-shirt leaders did not look like old pals at a reunion, but they did not look like rivals ready to set the country on fire to defend their stakes, either.

So, the whole country heaved a cautious sigh of relief and will remain anxious until the truce talks resume this evening. At least the wait will not be as nerve-wracking as the one between Saturday night and Sunday morning, when nobody could predict what was going to happen when the red shirts arrived at the 11th Infantry Regiment headquarters in a bid to force Abhisit to dissolve the House of Representatives.

For the red shirts, getting the government to the negotiating table is arguably a victory in itself. But whether what was said during the talks will limit its future options remains to be seen. Having flushed troops out of places "where soldiers aren't supposed to be", their next moves will be harder and harder, especially after they vowed never to "do a yellow shirt" by occuyping Government House or Suvarnabhumi Airport.

Good tactical plan

On Saturday, the govenment refused to blink but that could not prevent it from getting a black eye. The prime minister was in Cha-am and troops standing guard at various spots near Phan Fa Bridge were unprepared and absolutely outnumbered, let alone unarmed as part of a non-confrontational policy. So, with a good tactical plan by the red shirts, the result was a massive psychological boost over an embarrassed Abhisit administration.

After troops were forced to pull out of various spots around the Phan Fa Bridge, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban managed to repair some damage with a grim-faced press conference stressing that soldiers never considered the protesters as "enemies" so neither should the red shirts. But while it was debatable whether the humility caused a big loss of face or won some hearts, the government suddenly was staring at a slippery slope strategically. The whole country was holding its breath

on Saturday evening when protesters surrounded Government House with

an impossible demand that troops there leave the compound.

It was a very close call. The red shirts finally agreed not to storm Government House but made an even more worrying threat to "invade" the 11th Regiment headquarters. The government responded with a threat to declare martial law inside the sprawling premise and subsequently both sides ended up sending their leaders to the conference room at King Prajadhipok's Institute.

Round One of the talks, broadcast live throughout on TV, only confirmed both sides' unofficial stands conveyed to each other through informal contacts and the media. Abhisit said he was willing to dissolve the House of Representatives but not now. The red shirts, represented by Veera Musigapong, Jatuporn Prompan and Weng Tojirakarn, insisted he must do it right away. Jatuporn, the most aggressive of the trio, gave Abhisit two weeks and declared that when the red shirt leaders return this evening, it will be just to get a "yes" or a "no".

If it was a debate, it was a clear draw. And a good one. Both sides attacked each other's weakest points and tried to paper over their own. The red shirt leaders focused on Abhisit's questionable rise to power, which they said was backed by a Constitution born out of a military coup. Abhisit replied that real spirit of democracy could not be selectively discussed, insisting that problems in Thailand could not be all blamed on the military. And he hit back at highly questionable methods of the red shirts themselves. Democracy, he said, wouldn't allow the movement to do many of the things it has done, not least playing a doctored audio clip to make protesters think he was a murderer.

Thaksin Shinawatra was largely left out of the talks, although Abhisit implied that his shadow was still hanging over the three red negotiators. Questions lying just beneath the surface include whether a quick House dissolution would benefit the fugitive who until a few days ago remained the undisputed patriarch of the red shirt movement. The red negotiators want a new election to serve as a referendum on what changes the public wants to make to the Constitution. In other words, if Pheu Thai triumphed, the red leaders would portray the victory as public support for Pheu Thai ideas on how the charter should be changed.

That, Abhisit said, was a bad idea. Elections should be about policy and things that directly concern the people. Even if the majority of voters accept they are casting ballots also for constitutional changes, there would be problems if only just 10 per cent of them don't accept it or are unaware of the added significance of their decisions. The prime minister insisted the election and a referendum on changes to the charter should be separate, and his stand was clear that he wanted to sort out constitutional issues before a poll can be held.

Both sides produced many memorable ideological quotes yesterday which only amplified the question why Thailand wound up at this juncture in the first place. Perhaps that's what always happens when the TV cameras are on, which means what will dictate the final outcome are the things that take place after everyone leaves the negotiating table.

But despite ambiguous signals from Thaksin last night - he attacked Abhisit's "insincerity" and urged red shirts to trust their leaders - at least the talks are taking place amid a "We have nothing to lose" atmosphere. To broadcast the talks live is a good idea. It's an infant's first step, but with the side that makes it fall shown on national television, maybe the infant wouldn't fall so easily.