Fugitive ex-PM is allegedly trying to bargain behind the scenes as some red elements seek to shake off his shadow
Thaksin Shinawatra seems to have lost his voice at a time when the red-shirt protesters have found a new one. Is it a coincidence or do the late arrival of Pheu Thai MPs at the Phan Fa stage and the fugitive's proclaimed sore throat - that has been preventing him from addressing his supporters for a third day in a row - signal a major rethink in the anti-government campaign?
Nobody knows for certain if his throat is really sore, though Thaksin did tweet yesterday, claiming he still needed an injection "so I can come back quickly and talk to [my supporters] again". However, this excuse was preceded by news in Bangkok that the Foreign Ministry was renewing its attempts to have the United Arab Emirates banish the former PM.
Still, whatever the real reason, Thaksin's three-day absence meant a new star was born at Phan Fa. Chaturon Chaisang led an army of Pheu Thai MPs to the red-shirt stage this week and quickly became the rally's best speaker to date, quelling rumours that Thaksin's political party and the street protesters were drifting apart. With Thaksin's self-absorbed belligerence replaced by Chaturon's calm and reasonable presence, the red-shirt crusade took on a new look, though not by much and we don't know how long it will last.
How can a campaign for (and funded by) Thaksin pull away from him? Posters of Thaksin have adorned the Phan Fa Bridge, and nine out of 10 protesters would admit that he Is the real reason they are in Bangkok. Yet, he is both an asset and a liability for the rally. Without him there wouldn't be a mass rally in the first place, but because of him the protesters have never been given the credit that some sympathisers believe they deserve.
Thaksin has been insisting that the protests are not about him, yet according to a high-ranking source, some bargaining was taking place behind the scenes. Thaksin's alleged conditions are that he quickly be given back the money the Supreme Court did not confiscate and that he be allowed a "little honourable space to stand on". This confirms what his younger brother Payap said a few weeks ago - if Thaksin's dignity was returned through some form of amnesty or probation and he was given back a significant portion of his wealth, then all the problems would be solved.
If the red-shirt campaign has moved "far beyond Thaksin" like some have suggested, then the rally must be at a fragile stage now and this so-called negotiation could be like dynamite that can blow it away. In this "It's not about Thaksin" scenario, protest organisers will have to walk a very tight rope. For example, how can they keep the increasingly exhausted and homesick crowds motivated? How can they convince the protesters that they are fighting for something more noble than Thaksin's Bt30 billion.
The Pheu Thai MPs had been aware of the "double-edged sword" that Thaksin's involvement would be and had sought to initially stay away. Their change of heart means that either Thaksin's carrot-and-stick strategy is working at last, or that the MPs are part of a very subtle scheme to "de-Thaksinfy" the rally.
And it's not just the MPs who were weary of Thaksin's shadows being cast over the rally. Left-wing hardliners who had jumped on the Thaksin bandwagon simply because they thought they could use his popularity to support their cause have been embarrassed by his obscene personal interests intertwining with real problems of the poor. Last week, Thaksin awkwardly called himself a "phrai" (poor slave), providing his enemies with jokes that undermined the rally.
Thaksin is also the reason why the government has refused to negotiate with the red shirts. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has made it clear that talks revolving around or alluding to Thaksin's future can never take place. Thaksin himself seems to have realised how his mere presence has made things very complicated, saying in one of his tweets yesterday that the protest organisers have full mandate to negotiate with the government.
Meanwhile, the MPs' participation came with another strategic shift. The initial intention to make this a "heavyweight bout" that could end in two rounds has been replaced by a slow-but-sure philosophy that would make the rally compact, protracted and flexible - just like the yellow-shirt rally.
"We don't mind if the number of protesters drops to 4,000 or 5,000," one protest leader told The Nation yesterday. "A smaller rally makes it easier for rotation and we can save our energy for occasional mass gatherings."
The street activists and MPs are hoping that their joined forces would make this Saturday's crowd balloon to an impressive size. "We will show that we can wait, too," red-shirt leader Jatuporn Promphan said. "The government will try to provoke us but we have learned our lesson. We don't want violence and society will never accept a party that triggers violence."
With both sides apparently digging their heels in, what would the man with the sore throat say? Has the rally really become "mature" enough to continue on its own? Or are the new voices we've been hearing over the past three days just commercial breaks to make up for the absence of the one and only star who refuses to fade away?
