THE BATTLE waged by the army of red shirts commanded by Thaksin Shinawatra from afar turned ugly and violent yesterday when the first grenade was fired into an Army compound, causing injuries to two soldiers. The war became bloody.
Given the accuracy of the grenade attacks, they could only have been carried out by well-trained hands. This came after the police captured a large cache, exceeding 1,000 items, of grenade launchers and parts to be assembled.
The violence came after incoherent ranting for about 45 minutes on Sunday night to rouse tens of thousands of red shirts who gathered along Rajdamneon Avenue in a new bid to create political trouble. When the rally hit its peak, it was estimated the crowd ranged between 50,000 to 70,000, far below the boast of Thaksin's cronies who lead the campaign that up to one million red shirts would show up to oust Abhisit.
The violence disqualifies the claim of the red shirts that they would rally peacefully and with ahimsa. When the first shot was fired, the ringleaders would naturally blame "third hands" and elements that wanted to provoke the authorities into action and suppression of the rallies.
Things could have been different if the first casualties were red shirts or bystanders. When the Army compound was chosen as the first target, it showed that security in the city could not be under control.
The launch of the grenades was not entirely unexpected. Somehow, violence would be the last resort, during the last battle by Thaksin to force the outcome his way after heavy spending to hire protesters from all over the country.
At least Bt1,000 baht per day has been paid to each red shirt, plus Bt4,000-Bt6,000 for gasoline for vehicles. That's why tens of millions of baht per day are needed to keep the rally well-oiled and lasting long enough to test the government's endurance.
The demand for Abhisit to dissolve Parliament was rejected even before the red shirts made the announcement in front of a military compound in suburban Bangkok. The ringleaders spent hours making long tirades against all parties considered adversaries of Thaksin.
Who is going to win eventually? This is indeed a battle of will and tolerance. The ringleaders are frustrated by the total disregard for them on the part of Abhisit. By late afternoon yesterday, they were back at the rally site on Rajdamneon Avenue to explore new strategies and a probable exit for themselves, graceful or otherwise.
For the ringleaders, if they lose this time, they will have to come up with a new plan to persuade Thaksin to spend more money on another war - and of course, huge chunks of that will be siphoned off to enhance their personal wealth.
As of now, nobody can predict the extent of any potential violence, now that the red shirts are victims of their own failure. They have been criticised and are disliked by city people for the inconvenience they have caused, and because of the risk of violence. They must also realise that it is a no-win situation unless they want to kid themselves and spin tall tales to extract more money from Thaksin.
Who is going to pay the final price? So far, business operators are among the first to bear the brunt of Thaksin's war. Tour groups to Thailand and hotel bookings have been cancelled, with the full negative impact yet to be calculated.
In financial terms, those who have benefited are the rally organisers and recipients of the daily funding. That's Thaksin's distribution of income from his ill-gotten gains during his years in power. But this means of giving back the money is not worth the cost the entire country has to bear.
