More than ever now, Thaksin Shinawatra needs the rural poor to bail him out.
Yesterday's quiet showing by his red-shirted supporters based in Bangkok and its surburbs was downplayed as a calm before a real storm, but whether that's true or not, their provincial counterparts have to produce nothing short of a hurricane in the next couple of days.
He could take heart in the fact that red tides were streaming into Nakhon Sawan last night from upper North. The meeting point, rally organizers hope, would be flooded with more than 100,000 people before dawn, making the last stretch of the journey to Bangkok one of the historic political moments.
Thaksin knows better than anyone that this particular red campaign can't end with a whimper. While there can be plenty of excuses for the low turnouts at rendez vous spots around Bangkok yesterday, he can't afford to be seen as being abandoned by the rural poor during arguably his darkest hours.
No more court case coming up. Pheu Thai, his virtual political party, is facing no dissolution threats. If Thaksin can't turn the asset seizure ruling into a groundswell of sympathy now, the only chance for a "red upheaval" will be lost forever.
According to police, only 6,500 protesters gathered yesterday at various spots around Bangkok, far below the initial target of 10,000 people at each gathering point. A lot of factors may contribute to the low turnout _ hot weather, limited financial supplies, the "no-violence" campaigns, the widespread fear of violence as well as the seemingly poor coordination among the organizers.
Rivals of the red shirts claimed there were other reasons as well. They said news that Thaksin's family members and close relatives were leaving Thailand during this time left a bad taste in his followers' mouths. Some red sympathizers might have also felt reluctant to join a "pro-democracy" rally that took place only days after the Supreme Court seized his "ill-gotten" money.
"If you are red members you can get somewhat confused," said Suriyasai Katasila, a yellow-shirted leader. This is not to say, however, that most red shirts would renounce a campaign to retrieve Thaksin's money. It's only that protest organisers' reluctance to associate the rally with Thaksin's confiscated wealth has left them with the less attractive, or even boring, cause of overthrowing an illegitimate Democrat government.
That the "three buddies", as the three red shirt leaders are called, spent most of yesterday appearing on red cable TV discussing same old issues raised eye-brows. They offered no good explanation why they were not leading the crowds on the first day of the rally, only saying yesterday was just a "prelude" and the reds' real force would be seen at the weekend.
It seemed everyone was pinning his hope on the rural poor to weave their political magic and save Thaksin. News reports from the province showed lively preparations in various northern and northeastern provinces, but along with that also came a setback, as a group of red supporters were caught on camera receiving payment from those who looked like organizers.
Whether or not the apparent scandal was an exception or a rule didn't matter as far as Thaksin was concerned. He has to do whatever it takes to make sure the red rally creates a big impact at least in terms of numbers. This desperate situation has prompted fears that if the red shirts could not form a mass big enough, chances of "statement through violence" may increase.
Considering the fast-growing "peace" movement in the city and the government's preparations, a repeat of last year's Songkran turbulence seems unlikely, at least for now. To bounce back from the court setback, Thaksin will need pure power of the poor to relaunch himself. The irony of it is not even the fact that he remains one of Thailand's richest men, but the red shirted leaders' description of this campaign as one to expose a yawning gap between Thailand's Haves and Have-nots.
