The last time Thaksin Shinawatra said "Please save me" in earnest, his political party was on the verge of losing state control to the Democrats.
The message, reportedly conveyed in late 2008 to the people who could swing parliamentary numbers in his favour or against him, obviously fell on deaf ears.
Now, hours before his red-shirted movement was about to launch a do-or-die campaign aimed at ousting the Democrat-led coalition, a similar plea has been made, this time to a number of people tasked with mobilising mobs from rural areas to Bangkok. "Don't abandon me, please," he reportedly told them.
Whether that was a clever rallying cry or a statement of desperation, nobody can really tell. But it seemed that Thaksin didn't know much more than the anxious Thai public how many people would be willing to take to the streets to help him now. The current political suspense was created not just by his side, but also rivals who are apparently better prepared after learning from the last Songkran's experience. Therefore, each side can only see half the picture of what's going on.
Will the rally be massive? As far as funding goes, Thaksin is in trouble. Many sources, including those from within his own camp, have confirmed that the red shirts' financial engine has been sputtering for quite some time. A yellow-shirt style, prolonged encampment has been ruled out, meaning red protest organisers will have to take whatever they have - big or small crowds - and go for broke within five or seven days.
"Organisers" are another problem. Nobody knows who is their ultimate leader, albeit the second in command after Thaksin. The movement has been split by financial and personal conflicts, so much so that there is no single person who can control everything. This problem might sort itself out if the streams of protesters heading to Bangkok manage to form a mass big enough to give everyone hope they can fight for a common goal. On the other hand, scattered mobs operating independently can prove uncontrollable and dangerous.
A huge mass will make a huge difference, and both sides know this, leading to a propaganda warfare unseen for a long time. A "climate of fear" has been instigated by both camps, but at this hour it's the government that seems to benefit more from it. The "peace" or "no-violence" campaigns gathering at various social spheres had more to do with concern that the red shirts would create a Songkran-type turmoil than worries that government troops would cruelly crack down on them.
The red shirts have themselves at least partly to blame for the widespread anxiety. Threats against media outlets and individuals, for example, were initiated by hardcore red members who left clear fingerprints on a few websites. This plays nicely into the hands of the government, which had been waiting for justification to invoke emergency laws and discredit a political rally already questioned for its lack of clear aims.
It's a gamble for the red shirts to spring back to life after Thaksin had a big chunk of his assets seized by the state. The movement has avoided mentioning the money and instead chosen to sing an old tune. This is a campaign against the Democrats' "illegitimate" rise to power, they claim, and the prime minister must dissolve the House immediately.
The government won't be cowed this time. Instead, it took the threats and amplified them to its own advantage. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva asked the public not to panic but at the same time made sure the word "sabotage" appeared in front-page headlines last week. Yesterday mass-circulation Thai Rath broke taboos by sensationally leading with security being beefed up around Siriraj Hospital, where HM the King has been staying. In terms of media strategy, the red shirts have lost the first round.
The real information war, however, will be waged this weekend, when the red tide enters the city. Everyone, from protesters to police guards to military troops to bystanders, will be holding cameras or mobile phones that can shoot video clips to make sure that every "lie" is countered. Even policemen guarding The Nation compound said their bosses have given them handycams to record incidents related to red-shirted protests.
Will the opposing elements cancel each other out, allowing Thailand to avert yet another potential disaster? Although Thaksin is the one crying out to be "saved", it's his country that needs all the help it can get.
