THAKSIN Shinawatra's final battle, based on his megalomaniacal ambition to regain political power and seized assets, continues to cause concern among city people whose livelihoods could be disrupted for a week, if not longer, with the possibility of violence in the streets.
Chaos is the ultimate threat from Thaksin and his cronies. His minions are spoiling for blood in exchange for part of the fugitive's dwindling war chest, to be dispensed in what he terms an all-out gamble. Red-shirt leaders have been organising rallies in many provinces before their "long march" from all over the country to Bangkok on March 14, supposedly to bring the downfall of the Abhisit government, which is making hectic preparations as well.
Abhisit himself shows ill-concealed concern over the impending crisis. However, as of yesterday, he said he had postponed indefinitely a visit to Australia planned from March 16. It had been expected his foreign trip would be cancelled at the last minute if the intensity of the situation and the potential trouble warranted his command and control to ensure that what action the joint forces take to quell any violence would come under his sole responsibility.
As of now, provincial authorities have been instructed to hold back caravans of farm vehicles and pickup trucks, which would cause traffic havoc on their long journey to the city. Community leaders have been instructed to discourage villagers from joining the rally for just small stipends from Thaksin's funds.
In assessing the situation, this war between Thaksin and the state is unprecedented. Firstly, the fugitive has warned in advance that he wants to oust the Abhisit government and change the entire structure of the nation, just short of dismantling the monarchy. This latter goal is the ultimate objective of some hardcore elements among the red shirts who are espousing communist ideology.
The military is no doubt well prepared, though the top generals remain quiet about what they intend to do to control a potentially chaotic situation. They will be no less alert than during the mayhem and violence witnessed in April last year. Only worse might be expected this time.
One initial security success has been the detention of thuggish supporters of the red shirts, chiefly the so-called "Seh Daeng", a rogue junior general who vows to serve Thaksin, and who is now suspended from active service. Together with certain retired generals, he has become a full-fledged soldier of fortune in the truest sense of the term. These retired generals have joined Thaksin's crony political party mainly for money to embellish their financial status during their retirement years.
But there are still others who are bent on using violence to cause change through eventual military intervention, which could lead to a coup. That's still unlikely due to the sense that the top brass are aware of the necessity of maintaining stability and that a coup would only make the entire situation worse.
What can be expected this week is the re-imposition of the security act by the Cabinet to dilute the potential danger caused by the rally. The number of participants remains in doubt, but certainly it will not be one million as repeatedly boasted by the red-shirt leaders.
The next step is the likelihood of a revocation of bail for the leaders under criminal charges. By cancelling their bail and putting them back in prison, the government expects to nip the problem in the bud and pre-empt possible chaos.
The final factor lies in the number of red shirts mobilised to gather in Bangkok and - from their perspective - to paralyse the city via traffic congestion that will test the tolerance of urban residents. If the turnout is miserably small, say less than 50,000, then the focus could shift to violence to make the government look bad.
In the end, with security preparedness and systematic counter-measures, the red shirts will find that the hot weather and other obstacles will make it not worthwhile fighting for Thaksin, who is shunned by the world community.
After the battle - with violent confrontation or otherwise - Thaksin will lose again, just like the previous defeats he has suffered. The pattern of his failure will not be reversed.
This time around, he stands to lose more. The key indicator will be the sudden departure from the country of his relatives to avoid the public backlash for their betrayal of the land.
