Govt offering no real counter to red shirts' rally

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has quoted recent intelligence reports pointing to the possibility of sabotage taking place on March 14 at the height of the red shirts' rally in Bangkok. He did not provide details as to who was behind the sabotage threats against Bangkok. But he said the government was closely monitoring the situation and would make sure no weapons were smuggled out of the military barracks.

 It is becoming clear that the red shirts mean business this time. They plan a rally in Bangkok between March 12 and 14. The aim is to create a radical political change so that former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra can return to political power. Any prospects of peace and normalcy in the aftermath of the Supreme Court's decision to confiscate Bt46 billion of Thaksin's assets are an illusion.

Starting on March 12th, the reds would block off all the major highways into Bangkok from the North, South, West, East, and Northeast.

They will use pick-up trucks as their vehicles to render Bangkok polarised. Suthep Thaugsuban, the deputy prime minister, has threatened to use forklift trucks to remove the trucks. Jatuporn Phromphan, one of the red-shirt leaders, earlier said he would try to muster at least 100,000 pick-up trucks to blockade Bangkok.

The red shirts will demand the resignation of the Abhisit |government.

But the idea of using forklift trucks to fight against the red shirts is a big joke. If the red shirts were to surround the forklift trucks, the drivers inside would flee the scene. It depends on how the authorities maintain security at events. At this point, it appears the police might be shifting into neutral gear.

We expect the red-shirt rallies will try to incite turmoil throughout the three days. They will also gather at four strategic locations - at the Borworadej Coup Monument, the statue of King Rama VI, the King Taksin Monument and at Phanfah Leela area at the Rajdamnoen Road.

Some intelligence officials have estimated the red shirts crowd at 150,000 coming from the upcountry. If the Bangkok cells are included, we'll have another 100,000 to make it the total of 250,000. But others fear these |figures are underestimated because the rallies could bring in more red-shirt supporters.

If the red shirts stay together, it would be easy for the security forces to take them on. But if they separate and create pockets of violence, then it would be extremely difficult for authorities to bring the situation under control.

The Pheu Thai Party now plans to submit a no-confidence motion on March 16 to further weaken the government. We have heard that Newin Chidchob of the Bhumjai Thai party and Banharn Silapa-Archa of the Chat Thai Pattana Party might jump ship to bring down the government at that most critical moment. The Pheu Thai, Bhum Jai Thai and Chat Thai Pattana have agreed to tentatively form the next government. This new alliance appears to have agreed on support for Maj-General Sanan Khachonprasat as the new prime minister.

The military is 100 per cent on full alert. Strangely enough, Prime Minister Abhisit would be making his trip to Australia during the height of the red shirts' rally. By doing so, he will assign all the national security management to his deputy Suthep. It is clear that only the military now backs the Democrats, who might not survive this episode.

What is most worrisome is that the government does not appear to have any tangible and sensible plan to counter the red-shirts |rallies. With the police going into neutral gear, and the military trying to keep its patience under control, we can only face a growing prospect of violence. Thaksin is going for his final battle for a kill, while Abhisit does not seem to have any defensive plan or counter measures.