WELL, the "number" has finally been split up and everyone from the finance minister down to the most junior bank official is having nightmares deciding which parts go where, which parts need to be taxed, and which parts need whose authorisation before they can be released, among other things. If you think there must be at least one person in this country who knows all the answers, you'd be wrong.
But that was the easy bit. In the end, the money will find its own way. The real issue is where we will go from here. Briefly on judgement day, light flashed at the end of the tunnel, as the court came up with what looked like a well-structured compromise. It addressed the key issue of conflict of interest quite properly, while at the same time being "fair" to Thaksin Shinawatra concerning money earned before he entered politics. After all, returning Bt30 billion to a man who might have all but written off Bt76 billion should pacify rather than infuriate him.
When the dust has settled, however, we may find ourselves back where we started. And it's not just the bombs. The moral divide, the main cause of our political crisis, is not getting any narrower. In fact, the Supreme Court verdict has reopened old wounds and rubbed them with salt.
It's deja vu all over again. No matter how staunch you are ideologically, this could be very tiresome. In addition, whether this is a good time to re-debate Ample Rich, the telecom excise tax or EXIM bank loan is debatable. But the court verdict requires something more serious than shouting matches on op-ed pages. The "guilty" ruling on each charge of abuse of power will now need to be followed up by the government and anti-graft authorities. A new hunt is now on.
The question is not whether the mop-up operations are necessary, but whether Thailand is ready for the consequences of a final assault on Thaksin. All of a sudden, a new dilemma has presented itself: The Abhisit government can choose to go all the way and kiss reconciliation goodbye, or bet on Thaksin realising how "lucky" he was to get more than one-third of his assets back, and let it lie.
At first glance, the verdict gave the ruling Democrats many cards to play. The continued "freeze" of the money to be returned means that if Thaksin and his hardcore supporters do not "behave", they can almost certainly expect technical delays at every step of the way. But it is the court's tough stance on conflict of interest that should be the main cause for concern in the Thaksin camp.
The unequivocal rulings on cases involving the Thaksin government and his telecom empire have left many people vulnerable legally. For example, should an entire Thaksin cabinet be held responsible for the telecom excise tax and the EXIM loan, the two "clearest cases" of abuse of power according to the court?
In normal circumstances, the Democrats would drool over the prospect of holding such advantage over their opponent. Now, the need to follow up on the court verdict may feel like a hot potato. It's one thing to have the court seize Bt46 billion from Thaksin; it's another to have to lead what will surely be dubbed by the Democrats' rivals a new witch hunt.
Things will continue to be tense and gloomy, not because of the money factor, but because the verdict has pushed the country's reluctant handling of conflicts of interests to a new level. A lot of people will say this is a good thing, moral showdowns like this one had better go all the way.
The question, though, is whether a crackdown in the aftermath of the assets seizure can really make a difference as far as Thailand's moral divide is concerned. Some heads may roll, and that may mean justice is done to some, or a travesty of justice is handed down to others. We may have gone way past that point, where anyone at all can have a final say regarding the political conflict, and be listened to.
Thaksin has been made to pay Bt40 billion for sneaking into a political system he was not supposed to be in, and Thailand has paid four years for trying to dislodge him in a no less controversial manner. What else is there to be lost? Still quite a lot, although the money is all taken care of for now. What else is there to be done? Despite the looming crackdowns, not much, actually.
